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July 18, 2023

What motivates Trump and DeSantis supporters? Fear of "Replacement Theory"

By Robert Weiner

The only way to confront fear is through understanding. Diversity is America's strength. The day leaders rise above partisan politics and confront the divisive rhetoric that threatens Americans everywhere will be the day that the nation truly thrives on the values it was built upon. There needs to be a new American message that says, "Mix, Mingle, and Learn." The fear just might go away.

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By Robert Weiner and Charlyn Chu


With Trump and DeSantis being the only Republican candidates in double digits and accounting for over 70% of Republican voters polled, we've learned what motivates most Republican primary voters: It's fear of the "replacement theory."

In a report by the US Census, the year 2030 was identified as a demographic turning point: the main driver of population growth would be immigration, rather than natural growth due to population aging. While non-Hispanic whites are still projected to remain the largest racial group in the next 40 years, they will likely no longer constitute the majority starting in 2045.

As the United States heads towards a future marked by increased racial and ethnic diversity, the question arises: What exactly are Trump and DeSantis supporters most concerned about, and why does the anti-immigrant message resonate? The answer lies in the notion of "replacement."

The Great Replacement Theory (GRT), propagated by white nationalists, suggests that racial minorities, immigrants, and Jews are intentionally having babies and entering the country to replace white, native-born Americans.

Their anxieties about impending population shifts are clear when observing their efforts to undermine the influence of certain demographics. From gerrymandering practices to separation of families at the border and banning of black history books, their actions betray a fear of losing control in the face of changing population dynamics.

In 2021, Tucker Carlson claimed the Democratic Party was "trying to replace the current electorate with new people, more obedient voters from the Third World". An SPLC poll showed that 7/10 Republicans believed demographic changes were a real threat, driven by progressive and liberal politicians.

In 2022, Payton Gendron, perpetrator of the Buffalo shooting, cited replacement theory as his motive in a 180-page manifesto. Concerned about declining white birth rates and white genocide, his response was to target a predominantly black community.

Those who wholeheartedly believe in replacement theory appear to have a hatred towards those who are not of 'pure' white race. These racist sentiments date back to atrocities like the KKK, Jim Crow, Nazi persecution of Jews, and outdated pseudo-science that placed white Christian Europeans at the apex of racial classification pyramids.

Regrettably, even if GOP lawmakers themselves may not hold such extreme views, they often espouse replacement rhetoric to incite their voter base. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) ran ads parroting the GRT:

"Radical Democrats are planning their most aggressive move yet: a PERMANENT ELECTION INSURRECTION--Their plan to grant amnesty to 11 MILLION illegal immigrants will overthrow our current electorate and create a permanent liberal majority in Washington."

Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) tweeted "The Biden administration is sending pallets of baby formula to the border for illegal aliens, while American mothers are crying in the grocery store searching for it."

For DeSantis supporters, replacement theory is yet another reason to attack the expansion of LGBTQ+ rights as white nationalists see homosexuality as "a refusal to produce the children needed to restore a majority white nation."

Immigration and the unfounded notion of 'replacement theory' should not be sources of fear. For those who harbor such fears, it is often rooted in ignorance: thus why cultural diversity is crucial to dispel negative stereotypes and personal biases.

With a projected growth in US diversity, time may solve the problem. Increasing diversity challenges beliefs that other racial and ethnic groups are monolithic or have contradicting values, allaying fears of replacement.

In the meantime, while Biden has condemned replacement theory, stating that "Hate has radicalized alienated individuals into falsely believing that they will be replaced--by people who don't look like them," others need to demand accountability.

Liz Cheney did well when she blasted fellow Republicans for enabling 'white nationalism, white supremacy, and anti-Semitism. Her 2022 Wyoming loss stemmed from her opposition to Trump's Jan 6 actions, not her policies when she garnered better than 2-1 victories for decades.

Now, more than ever, congressional leaders must speak out, even if it means challenging their peers or going against the tide of their voters. They must reject the cowardice that allows history to repeat itself and stop leveraging toxic replacement ideology that undermines the foundations of US democracy.

From a political standpoint, wanting to restrict illegal migrants and tighten border policy is one thing, but spewing anti-immigrant rhetoric is entirely another. Misconceptions about immigration must be addressed so no workers feel threatened; statistics show that immigrants are critical to the US economy and GDP growth.

The GOP must stop exploiting biases for political gain in attempts to distract their voters from economic policies that run counter to their own interests.

The only way to confront fear is through understanding. Diversity is America's strength. The day leaders rise above partisan politics and confront the divisive rhetoric that threatens Americans everywhere will be the day that the nation truly thrives on the values it was built upon.

There needs to be a new American message that says, "Mix, Mingle, and Learn." The fear just might go away.

Robert Weiner was a spokesman for the Clinton and Bush White Houses, the House Government Operations Committee under Chairman Rep. John Conyers, and senior staff for U.S. Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, Rep. Claude Pepper, Rep. Ed Koch and Sen. Ted Kennedy. Charlyn Chu is a policy analyst at Robert Weiner Associates and Solutions for Change.



Authors Bio:

Robert Weiner,
NATIONAL PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND ISSUES STRATEGIST

Bob Weiner, a national issues and public affairs strategist, has been spokesman for and directed the public affairs offices of White House Drug Czar and Four Star General Barry McCaffrey, the House Government Operations Committee and Chairman John Conyers (D-MI), Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY) and the House Narcotics Committee, and was Chief of Staff for the House Aging Committee and Chairman Claude Pepper (D-FL). He also was Legislative Assistant to Ed Koch of New York and a political aide to Ted Kennedy (D-MA) for his Presidential and Senate races. Bob worked at the Democratic National Committee at the Watergate as youth voter registration director in 1971-1972 when the constitution was amended to allow 18-year olds the vote.

Since he left the White House in 2001, Bob heads up a public affairs and issue strategies company, Robert Weiner Associates. He is a regular political analyst on Radio America and has appeared on Bill Maher, CNN Crossfire, Today, Good Morning America, and the CBS, NBC, and ABC evening news. He is widely published in columns he writes on national issues in major papers throughout the country including recently the Washington Post, Denver Post, Miami Herald, Christian Science Monitor, New York Daily News, Baltimore Sun, Boston Globe, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Atlanta Constitution, New York Post, Washington Times, Sacramento Bee, Palm Beach Post, Salt Lake Tribune, Minneapolis Star Tribune, and Adweek. He is also regularly quoted in key media coast-to-coast, including the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, AP and Reuters, concerning the presidential campaign and national issues.


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