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August 29, 2016
Sanders can win with only 22% of the popular vote! Proof!
By dale ruff
I show how a candidate can win with only 22% of the popular vote. I show how Bernie could take the rise or fall of Trump ratings as a pretext to jump into the race. I show how Bernie could win handily in a coalition with Greens and libs. And I show how he could win on his own with less than 40% of the popular vote.
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My series on Sanders has argued that if Trump keeps his word and drops out because "I will not run if I am losing in the polls(Trump)."
Or what happens if Trump surges to go ahead of Clinton or risk going ahead because "The chief thing is to defeat Trump and defeat him badly (Sanders)."
Sanders has kept his options open: he has not turned down the Stein offer, he is not campaigning for Clinton, and he has left the Democratic Party.
My other claim is that he could, in a coalition with Johnson on the Green/Lib ticket win with 35% which he already has, if you add Johnson's 15% support. And since all polls show him beating Trump in a landslide, we can assume that Sanders alone would get at least, very conservatively, up to 30% on his own. Add it up: 48% with Stein's supporters, but with no help at all, Sanders easily can get 35% based on polls.
I have claimed you can win with 35% in a 3 way, but I have found an article which proves how a candidate can win with 22%, if he wins the "right" states. The Electoral College is such a nightmare that it promotes the victory of minority candidates (Bush II comes to mind). It also allows an electoral success with only 22%.
The right to vote did not come without struggle and sacrifice..................
Here is how it is done:
"The optimal solution happens to get exactly 270 electoral votes. In this solution, the winner takes DC, the 37 smallest states, the 39th smallest state, and the 40th smallest state. (The winner takes Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.)" source: click here
Winning with 35% would be much easier, as Clinton in 92 got 68% of electoral votes and 43% of popular vote.
The 22% scenario would work for a "conservative" since the smaller states are more rural and conservative, but at 35%, the big states, led by California, with 10% of the popular and electoral vote, NY with 7%, etc. could carry Bernie to the White House.
Bernie has exhibited political genius and those who denounce him are summer soldiers unaware of the long plan, and I am sure he knows exactly which states he would have to win to be victorious in a 3 way race with less than 50%.
So he is obliged to jump in if:
1. Trump surges ahead or threatens to do so. If Clinton can't beat Trump "badly," as Bernie said, he would have to jump in to defeat him.
2. If Trump loses, he has stated many times he would drop out. This scenarios leaves us somewhat blind to the consequences which might help Clinton but might hurt her if a less despicable candidate were picked to trump (!) her despicability. This would benefit Sanders.
3. With Johnson, the coalition could smash both candidates; without, Bernie could still get in the 30's and with Stein's 3 or 4%, he would reach 35% on his own, enough to win with the right states.
And I am sure he has a graphic that show him where he would have to win, since no one so out of the mainstream has achieved such success in a rigged system . He has done this with honesty, consistency, and a brilliant strategic mind.
So don't give up.....if Trump surges (he is up 50% and closing in Clinton in the past 3 weeks) or falters, Sanders is prepped by his previous comments and the urgency of the need to beat Trump, to jump in.....and there will be tens of millions cheering our most popular political leader! The times they are a changin.........
retired, working radical egalitarian/libertarian socialist old school independent, vegan, survivor