Analysis of the general elections of June 7 2015 in Turkey and outlook for further developments, in light of lack of majority by any party. Emphasis of the entry to the Turkish parliament of a Kurdish party--a first in the country's history.

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ANKARA, 7 June (OEN). The results of the Turkish elections of 7 June have put an end to the suspense that has dominated national politics in the past three months. For the first time in this republic's history a Kurdish party has succeeded to be elected to the legislature, with an impressive 15 percent of the seats available.

The breakthrough of the People's Democracy (HD) Party has radically changed the political landscape of Turkey, as it has come at the expense of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party, which has been in power since 2002. AKP has regressed in the latest contest by nine percentage points, from 49.8 percent in the 2011 elections to 40.86 percent.

The other two main contenders, the Republican People's (CH) Party and Nationalist Movement (MH) Party have retained their electorate, with MHP making a gain of 27 seats over the previous general elections. CHP, the oldest party in the country, established by modern Turkey's founder, Murtafa Kemal Ataturk, has stagnated, in spite of an aggressive economic and welfare programme.

Of the 54.8 million qualified voters, 47.5 million cast their ballots (86.6 percent participation). AKP received 40.86 percent of the votes, CHP 24.9, MHP 16.29 and HDP 13.12 percent.

AKP remains the largest political formation, but the loss of parliamentary seats to the newcomer HDP steals its privilege of legislative majority.

The Turkish Grand General Assembly is composed of 550 deputies. Pending the final official results, due to be announced in 11 days, AKP will have 258 seats, CHP 132, and MHP and HDP 80 each.

HDP's performance is quite remarkable, considering that it won 6.1 million votes out of an estimated 9 million total Kurdish voters.

Kurds are the largest ethnic minority of Turkey, with 15 million people out of a total of 77 million Turkish citizens. Their past, under the Turkish republic formed in 1923, has been turbulent, as they have not been recognised as a minority by the Constitution. Their attempts to obtain civic rights, including the use of their own language, were violently oppressed, intermittently, in the 1930s and from the 1970s onwards.

As a reaction, the more combative elements of their society formed in 1978 the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an activist organisation which, together with its paramilitary wing People's Defence Forces (HPG) went into an armed conflict with the country's security forces from 1984 through 2013, when a ceasefire was agreed on the basis of a negotiated peace process with the government.

The peace process has had ups and downs, but no agreement has been reached so far. The conflict has cost over the past 30 years 40,000 lives among security forces and PKK fighters. PKK is considered a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

But the ceasefire has disposed the Turkish civil population more favourably towards the Kurds than in past decades. This has given the opportunity for the creation in 2014 of a Kurdish political party, HDP, whose aim is to enter national politics through the main door--the Parliament.

Its main leader is a young lawyer, Salahattin Demirtas, 42. Within weeks after the creation of HDP he participated in the presidential elections of 10 August 2014. Although he only got 9.76 percent of the votes, he won the hearts and minds not only of Kurds, but also of many of the underprivileged of the country--women, unemployed, homosexuals, artists, journalists, Yazidis, Roma, Syriacs, Christians, and Jews--and of those who have been disappointed with either AKP or the opposition's CHP.

HDP presented 268 women candidates in the elections, while AKP only listed 90.

So the clear winner of the present elections is Demirtas, whom The Guardian of London labelled today "Obama of Turkey", and who has been seen in the past weeks by many as "Tsipras of Anatolia", in reference to the equally young and unconventional winner of the January 2015 Greek elections. Demirtas has, actually, succeeded to justify both of these images, thanks to the results achieved on 7 June.

The verdict of the polls on Sunday indicates that the campaign of the ruling AKP has not convinced a large part of its own electorate, as 9 percentage points lost represent an 18 percent relative voter decline in comparison with 2011. The absolute number of losses nears 3 million votes. These have grossed the gains of both MHP and HDP.

The campaign, which mobilised huge masses of AKP followers, considerable funds and the support of public agencies and government resources, such as state television, was led simultaneously by the incumbent prime minister and party chairman Ahmet Davutoglu and by the President of the Turkish republic, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in person. Erdogan is considered the most charismatic and energetic leader Turkey has had since Ataturk.

In principle, such a heavy artillery should have guaranteed a resounding triumph for AKP. Erdogan had in his numerous rallies exhorted the population to "give him 400 seats" in the parliament, an extremely optimistic expectation. But Erdogan had been elected president in the 2014 elections with 52 percent of the votes, and overconfidence prevailed within the party. This probably fired back, at the last moment, among moderate Islamists who resent exuberant and too-assertive leadership behaviour.

Erdogan's objective in the June 2015 elections was to secure at least 367 MPs. This would have given him free hand to change the Constitution by AKP representatives alone. The line of retreat was 330 seats, which would have still enabled Erdogan to call a referendum for the change. The 258 seats now obtained fall even short of the 276 threshold for having majority in order to run the government.

The scope of a new Constitution was to approve the adoption of an Executive Presidential regime, which would grant Erdogan full control over state affairs on a daily basis. The current Constitution, introduced after a military coup in 1980, limits the presidency to a ceremonial role.

Erdogan's vision for a presidential system has certainly been frustrated. But a careful study of his personality leads to the belief that he will pursue his aspirations, albeit with some postponement in their achievement.

AKP, having obtained the highest number of votes, will be asked to form either a coalition government, or a minority one, provided that at least one of the opposition parties commit to supporting it in the parliament. The only likely candidate for this is MHP, an ultra-nationalist formation with strong Islamic membership, which grants it a common denominator with AKP. But MHP has repeatedly affirmed that it will never concede to a presidential system. However, in Turkish politics 'never' does not always imply what the word says.

An alternative to the above scenario is a coalition between CHP, MHP and HDP, totalling 292 MPs. This is rather unlikely, especially because of the anti-Kurdish ideology of MHP's constituency. Moreover, coalitions have historically failed in Turkey, so a new one would be a recipe for instability.

In either case, the president will be the sole judge for accepting or rejecting the solution proposed by the parties. If there is no successful proposal within 45 days, a new election will be held in the following two months. If a coalition, or minority government is formed, its life span will be short, considering Turkey's present realities.

The economy is in decline, foreign direct investment and exports have sharply dropped since the beginning of the year, and foreign relations with Middle Eastern neighbours, the EU and the U.S. are problematic. Istanbul Stock Exchange opened on Monday with a 6 percent loss, while the Turkish lira declined by 4.5 percent, bringing the total depreciation of the currency in respect to the U.S. dollar to 19 percent since January 2015 and to 45 percent in 18 months.

In spite of Sunday's results, that came as music to the ears of 60 percent of Turks and proved a good degree of democratic maturity, no one seems to be euphoric. Executives from the different parties consulted this morning confirmed that their respective headquarters are already working on preparations for the replay of the electoral match--to be held most likely in October. [END]

Authors Website: https://eastmed-analyst.blogspot.com

Authors Bio:

J N Couvas is an academic, journalist, and an international corporate and political adviser, specialising in Middle East and Balkan affairs. He teaches international strategy and executive leadership at universities in the region.