Is Russia engaged in a "Grand Master" chess type strategy to strengthen its assets by buying gold, or just hedging its bets? What will the recent Geek Syriza victory mean to the world's currency markets and economies?

::::::::

Several recent articles breathlessly proclaim Putin's "Grand Strategy" of countering the West's -- particularly America's -- attempt to crush the Russian Ruble by flooding the market with cheap oil, is to buy up physical gold in record amounts.

This article, translated from the Russian original source: Investcafe, describes, accurately, how conventional military action against Russia will fail, as all other attacks against the "Bear" have failed in the past, and that nuclear preemptive strikes will also fail to take out enough of Russian counter-response capability, and that retaliation, possibly including other countries in Asia, will simply annihilate most life on Earth equally.

The article notes that America's favorite tool of "color revolutions" will not work as it has in smaller and much weaker countries like Libya, Georgia, and most recently (though not talked about in this article) Ukraine (still ongoing).

It concludes then that there will only be a currency war (perhaps somewhat naively and optimistically) and that:

The Western economic establishment can see and understand the essence of the situation. Leading Western economists are certainly aware of the severity of the predicament and hopelessness of the situation the Western world finds itself in, in Putin's economic gold trap. After all, since the Bretton Woods agreements, we all know the Golden rule: "Who has more gold sets the rules." But everyone in the West is silent about it. Silent because no one knows now how to get out of this situation.

If you explain to the Western public all the details of the looming economic disaster, the public will ask the supporters of a petrodollar world the most terrible questions, which will sound like this:

How long will the West be able to buy oil and gas from Russia in exchange for physical gold?
And what will happen to the US petrodollar after the West runs out of physical gold to pay for Russian oil, gas and uranium, as well as to pay for Chinese goods?

No one in the West today can answer these seemingly simple questions.

And this is called "Checkmate", ladies and gentlemen. The game is over.

Putin and China may indeed wish to diversify away from world hegemony of the U.S. dollar, but let's put this in perspective. According to recent sources, the U.S. still has by far the world's largest supply of gold, over 8,100 tonnes (1 metric tonne = apx. 1.1 American ton): See here, here, and here.

Russia, the world's 7th largest holder of gold reserves, weighs in with just 918.0 tonnes - less than China (#5), France, Italy, and especially #2, Germany (but, see articles about how German gold, "stored" in the U.S. since WWII, suddenly seems to have "disappeared" from American Central Bank vaults, when Germany asked for it back: click here).

If I were in Putin's shoes, I would do the same thing, attempt to diversify into gold holdings instead of the dollar, predicting the dollar will weaken and that my gold would then be worth more against it, as well as against other currencies already being weakened by other countries' Central Banks. The problem with this is that if the dollar weakens -- a big IF in a global race to the weaker currency bottom - U.S. exports will get cheaper and more competitive, though our imports will get correspondingly more expensive (including indirectly, Russian oil, though that is only sold to Europe, among the Western powers). The currency markets are fluid, with counter-playing forces constantly shifting, so what strategy works today, is exactly the wrong strategy as the proportions of holdings change, tomorrow.

I'm not sure this represents any "grand Chess Mastership" as it does common sense, and many commentators have pointed out that the U.S. is effectively bringing down the cost of gold through shorting - Paul Craig Roberts has several articles on this, co-authored by a gold trading expert, Dave Kranzler, of Golden Returns Capital. It does point out, correctly however, that attempts to force bankruptcy on Russia by collapsing oil prices and their currency are probably doomed to fail (and anyway, even if Russia had another bankruptcy, like it did in 1998, so what? That mainly hurt American holders of Russian debt, like Long Term Capital Management, which was so leveraged with other U.S. banks that it nearly tanked the U.S. economy and led to heroic rescue efforts coordinated by the Federal Reserve and Greenspan and involving a list of Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) well familiar to anyone who followed the even larger crisis just 10 years later. You'd think American banks and their regulators would have learned something from that 1998 experience, but like all inveterate gamblers, all they ever learn from these meltdowns and rescues is to take even bigger risks in the future for the same "rush").

What is likely to have more impact on the currency markets is the recent overwhelming victory of Syriza -- the new Greek anti-austerity, anti-repayment (at least in its current economy-destroying amount) party. Syriza, however, may be promising the impossible, trying to stay in the European Union, without paying off economy-destroying levels of debt. Greece is at Great Depression levels of unemployment - over 25% - with over 50% youth unemployment. It has weekly "demonstrations" which we in the pampered West would probably and perhaps properly, describe as riots. Austerity has created conditions in which teachers and even children and former white-collar professionals seek food from garbage cans, and take jobs, if they can find them, for 1/3 of what they used to make. The question then, is not whether Greece will fail -- it has already failed -- but whether they will jettison the Euro and reintroduce a greatly devalued Drachma. Like the U.S. dollar, if successfully shorted by gold, only much more so, a new Greek Drachma would make Greek exports cheaper and imports more expensive. Unlike America and even most European countries, however, Greece has little to export that the world is interested in. Instead, they will have to rely on being a cheaper travel destination for Western Tourists -- a strategy that will work only if Greece can simultaneously stabilize while tourists return to its famous pristine beaches and ancient ruins.

I predict that Greece will NOT be able to meaningfully renegotiate terms with the ECB or its mostly German backers. This would mean either default and probable withdrawal from the EU, or, more likely, given ECB head Mario Draghi's German-opposed movements lately, further moves to buy up Greek bonds but with the twist of supplying the Greek Central Bank with Euros, instead of individual banks, in the European style of Quantitative Easing. As Draghi and other experts admit, however, QE will not be enough to create recovery in Greece, or anywhere else, on its own. Fiscal reform -- including most importantly, stimulating economic demand -- will be essential. As former S&L super regulator Bill black points out, the vast majority of economists agree on this, from the Left or Right, that the lack of economic demand is what's holding back real economic recovery. The idea that what the world needs is more austerity, is a distinctly minority view, mostly held by the banks and their cronies, who only care about being repaid and in keeping or even widening the wealth gap.

Note that any increases in economic demand will mean more consumption, including from China and from Russia (oil). And so it goes...

Authors Website: http://newthinking.blogspot.com/

Authors Bio:

Scott Baker is a Managing Editor & The Economics Editor at Opednews, and a former blogger for Huffington Post, Daily Kos, and Global Economic Intersection.

His anthology of updated Opednews articles "America is Not Broke" was published by Tayen Lane Publishing (March, 2015) and may be found here:

http://www.americaisnotbroke.net/

Scott is a former and current President of Common Ground-NY (http://commongroundnyc.org/), a Geoist/Georgist activist group. He has written dozens of articles for Common Ground's national publication, GroundSwell, and has advocated for the Georgist Land Value Tax to public and political audiences.

A complete list of his publications can be found here:

Click Here

He is also New York State Coordinator,Senior Advisor, Director and AI Chair for the Public Banking Institute

Click Here, which seeks to promote Public Banking. The PBI is chaired by another OEN blogger, Ellen Brown.
Scott has appeared on TV/Radio and in in-person Presentations to explain the principles of Georgism, Greenbacking, and State Banking. These may also be found on his personal blog: http://newthinking.blogspot.com/

Scott has a dozen progressive petitions on Change.org which may be found here:

http://chn.ge/10nUAmJ

Scott was an I.T. Manager for a major New York university for over two decades where he earned a Certificate for Frontline Leadership.

He had a video game published in Compute! Magazine: Click Here

Scott is a graduate and adjunct faculty of the Henry George School of Social Science in New York City.

Scott is a modern-day Renaissance Man with interests in economics, science and all future-forward topics.

He has been called an "adept syncretist" by Kirkus Discoveries for his novel, NeitherWorld - a two-volume opus blending Native American myth, archaeological detail, government conspiracy, with a sci-fi flair http://amzn.to/10nUoDV

Scott grew up in New York City and Pennsylvania. He graduated with honors and a Bachelor's degree in Psychology from Pennsylvania State University and was a member of the Psychology honor society PSI CHI.

Today he is an avid bicyclist and ride co-leader in a prominent bike advocacy organization.

Technorati code: a72h4zxgud