In Wisconsin—the first state to ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation—the Rovian gay-bashing marraige amendment is doomed.

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Madison, Wisconsin—The so-called Defense of Marriage Acts/Amendments (DOMAs) will be back on the ballots in some 10 states this fall.

In Wisconsin—the first state to ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation—the Rovian gay-bashing amendment is doomed.

Wisconsin would become the first state to defeat a non-judicial anti-gay marriage initiative since the Republican party instigated its recent national campaign against gays and lesbians resulting in 18 states passing some version of amendments to their constitutions that ban gay marriage.

The contention that the Republican-launched DOMAs—proposed statues or constitutional amendments that double as get-out-the-wacko-vote efforts and policy preferences—are effective in getting Republicans elected has been widely discredited. [See, for example, Alan Abramowitz at “Donkey Rising” for the definitive knock down of the thesis that the 11 state gay marriage referenda were decisive in Bush’s 2004 electoral state wins.]

But the beleaguered Republican party cannot afford to lose its base, hence the return to gay-bashing marriage campaigns. Nationally, this June the U.S. Senate is expected to hold a vote on a proposed anti-gay marriage amendment to the U.S. constitution that will also likely be trounced.

The Wisconsin Republican initiative is the culmination of a two-session legislative process [voted almost exclusively along party lines] to amend the state constitution by voter referendum this November.

The proposed amendment [section 13 of article XIII] would result in not only the explicit banning of gay marriage by the Wisconsin constitution, but would also mandate that a “legal status identical or substantially similar to that of marriage for unmarried individuals shall not be valid or recognized…” That means, many legal scholars say, that the numerous domestic partner and civil union rights such as those enjoyed in Wisconsin municipalities like Madison would be in serious peril.

Those fearing that landmark achievements for gay civil rights in Madison and Wisconsin [some in the gay community used to boast that Wisconsin was the “gay rights state”] over the past 30 years will be obliterated in one day in November by a cynical Republican bigoted ruse can relax.

Electoral Numbers Spell a Defeat

Bear in mind that current polls (six months before the election) indicate that the coming campaign season portends highly-motivated Democratic voters and depressed Republican voters— news about as welcome to Republican political operatives as living with a bleeding-out Ebola virus victim.

The electoral numbers and the generally tolerant culture in Wisconsin spell disaster for the amendment. Not that Wisconsin lacks for bigoted nut jobs who believe dinosaurs frolicked with Adam and Eve, that the devil watches our every act, and that gays will spend eternity suffering in hellfire.

But let’s check some data in the last off-year (non-presidential), Wisconsin election—2002.

Madison and Milwaukee Counties

In Wisconsin, Madison-dominated Dane and Milwaukee counties [Dane and Milwaukee are two of three counties that cast over 100,000 votes in 2002] are by far the highest-performing Democratic/progressive strongholds. In 2002, Dane and Milwaukee counties composed some 25 percent of the voting public, and the combined Democratic/Green/Libertarian vote walloped the Republican 75 to 24 percent (Dane) and 63 to 35 percent (Milwaukee).

In Madison, both the dailies (the progressive Capital Times and the Republican Wisconsin State Journal) have come out strongly against the anti-gay amendment this year. Madison vote totals can be expected to exceed 90 percent against the amendment.

Expecting that the Democratic/Green/Libertarian sympathizers will decisively vote against the anti-gay marriage amendment, in order for the amendment to pass in 2006, it would need a landslide in the rest of Wisconsin to offset Madison-dominated Dane and Milwaukee counties. [So strong is the sentiment in Dane County against the religious right that former Rep. Mark Neumann—a religious right champion—complained after losing a razor-close battle to Sen. Russ Feingold in 1998 that “one county,” Dane, cost him the election.]

Waukesha County

To achieve a needed landslide outside Dane and Milwaukee counties, Republican-dominated Waukesha county, the third of three counties from 2002 that had over 100,000 votes cast would need to at least match Dane or Milwaukee in votes for the amendment. In 2002, the Republicans out-polled the Democratic/Green/Libertarian voters 62 to 37 percent in Waukesha, voting totals that do not offset Dane county.

Waukesha County represents about 9 percent of the state vote in 2002.

Even Republicans Don’t Like the Amendment

Statewide, the Democratic/Green/Libertarian voters out-polled the Republicans 58 to 41 percent in 2002.

But the truth is even some traditional Republican heavyweights don’t really want the amendment to pass—it’s just a get-out-the-vote tool.

Consider Tommy Thompson (R-Elroy, Wisconsin), former four-term governor and former Bush Secretary of Health and Human Services. Publicly begged to run against the vulnerable incumbent Democratic governor Jim Doyle (a strong gay civil rights proponent), Thompson, during his 16-year reign, reportedly cast a barely-hidden contempt toward the anti-gay, Armageddon set.

And it’s an open secret that the former Republican Speaker of the Assembly (1995-96), David Prosser (now a state Supreme Court Justice) lost a race in the northern, Republican-leaning eighth congressional district in 1996 because he was rumored to be gay. After the loss, Prosser was appointed to the Supreme Court by Thompson in 1998, then re-elected in 2001.

Thompson’s brother, Ed Thompson, who as the Libertarian candidate for governor in 2002 received 185,000 votes, told Dave Zweifel, the editor of the Madison Capital Times, that Republicans have been trying to pass “laws of prejudice against people. …If you can accept that, you’re not a Libertarian. You’re not even an American. You’re a bigot” (Capital Times, April 28, 2006).

Dead, Dead, Dead

Add to this that Senator Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin), arguably the hottest politician in the country at this moment, has blasted the amendment (unfortunately, fellow Senator Herb Kohl has refused to weigh in on the issue; he voted for the federal DOMA legislation in 1996; and because of the DOMA vote was famously outed by a Milwaukee weekly newspaper as a self-hating gay).

The business and manufacturing community is divided over it. And “Fair Wisconsin” (an aggressive and diverse coalition riding point against the amendment; please look them up and send them money-http://www.fairwisconsin.com/) is working overtime to defeat it. Even most small towns and cities (and there are lots of them here) are known for friendly, socially libertarian tolerance; white male Wisconsinites don’t care about other peoples’ sex lives, just give them beer, brats and the Packers. The amendment’s defeat is a slam dunk.

Of course, it makes for delicious red meat for self-important political analysts. Charles J. Sykes, Republican wag and social pontificator, has practically dared amendment opponents to charge its supporters with bigotry. Predicting that the amendment “may be defeated,” and calling himself personally “undecided,” Sykes warns: “[C]alling your opponents bigots or assuming that supporters of the amendment ‘hate’ gays will not win any converts,” and may even—gasp—cause the “undecided” Sykes to come out for the amendment on his highest-rated daily radio program in the state and supply the amendment’s winning margin. (Isthmus, March 9, 2006)

Note to Mr. Sykes: The amendment’s supporters are bigots and benighted fools and/or cynical hate mongers, and I double dog dare you to come out in favor of this insult to all thinking people in Wisconsin. The amendment is dead, dead, dead, buddy.

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Authors Website: http://malcontends.blogspot.com/

Authors Bio:
Michael Leon is a writer living in Madison, Wisconsin. His writing has appeared nationally in The Progressive, In These Times, and CounterPunch. He can be reached at maleon64@yahoo.com.