We have established the link between global warming and devastating earthquakes that have ravaged the earth over the past eight years.

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Today marks the first anniversary of the 5.8 earthquake that struck the DC area, centered in Mineral, VA, about 130km southwest. It caused about $100 million in damages in DC, mostly to the Washington Monument and the National Cathedral. According to historians, it is the largest quake anyone has felt in this area in recorded history. It also occurred during the 60-day window around the equinoxes.

We have established the link between global warming and devastating earthquakes that have ravaged the earth over the past eight years.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) publishes an online chart of mega-quakes (defined as at or above 8.5 on the Richter Scale) for the last century or so that reveals 17 such quakes, six within the last eight years. What you may not have noticed is that five of these six have occurred within 30 days of the equinoxes. At the same time, the maximum extent of arctic or antarctic ice coincided with these occurrences at a time when the Northwest Passage was opened for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years due to accelerated melting of the Arctic Ocean due to global warming.

Now there were seven mega-quakes in the period 1950 through 1964 that did not appear to have a high correlation with this pattern (only two within 30 days of the equinoxes), but global warming was not a significant factor in the melting of the Arctic Ocean until after 2000.

The physical mechanism for the linkage between these two very unlikely events is the mass differential at the poles. It is the only significant time-varying force that is of a magnitude -- trillions of metric tons -- capable of destabilizing the tectonic plates. The average annual melt vs. the average annual ice buildup is about 3m at the opposing poles, or over 15 trillion tons of net force. This is at least 3 times what it was before the impacts of recent global warming. I believe that this imbalance is enough to cause a serious deflection in the plates. As an example, this is like making Mount Everest, the world's largest mountain, alternatively appear and disappear every year at the poles.

The International Arctic Research Council and JAXA, the Japanese Space Agency, keeps track of the arctic ocean ice extent and publishes a daily update online. This year appears to be on course for setting the record for the greatest meltdown in history. Now, if we combine the two sets of data, here is an overlay of the six mega-quakes that have occurred since 2004. The only one out of band, the 2004 quake that took nearly a quarter-million lives, occurred when the arctic sea ice extent was over 85% of maximum.


Overlay of Mega-quakes and Arctic Ice Melt Data by Dr. Paul A. Curto


I wish that you might communicate this information with your friends, congressmen, and newspapers for discussion. If I am right, there is a very high probability, at least 90% with a 95% confidence level, that a mega-quake will occur in that 60 day band near the two equinoxes at least once each year, accelerating as the melting and refreezing continues to worsen with global warming. One of these bands started recently, on August 21, 2012.

The mass of the ice in the Arctic Ocean is totally compensated hydraulically throughout the earth's oceans, which means that the melted ice from the Arctic raises the ocean level while the sun is out at the North Pole. However, the ice melt and refreezing in Antarctica is not compensated except by pressure on the tectonic plates. The chart for Antarctica's ice is the mirror image of the Arctic ice extent six months out of phase.

This correlation means that global warming is having an immediate impact on the life, safety, and security of the human race right now, today, not 10,000 years from now, with deadly consequences thousands of times greater than 9/11. Global warming is now directly linked to the largest earthquakes ever recorded in history.

I published an earlier version of this graph at OEN a year ago after the 5.8 quake that struck Delmarva - the largest ever recorded near DC in history. The mega-quake that struck Fukushima (Honshu, Japan) last year on 3/11 was 50,000 times as powerful.

Here is the quake data from USGS... http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php

Here is the daily sea ice data from IARC/JAXA... http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm

One problem is that the analyst must have the math and the scientific knowledge across disciplines, unlike climate deniers who clearly do not. There is billions of dollars' worth of data being collected about the earth, and this correlation related to mega-quakes is only now being brought to light. Hansen's report this month clears up the fallacy that one needs centuries' worth of data to make the connection between the weather and climate change. The data here is highly correlated, not random, and hardly ambiguous.

Correspondence with the world's top seismic analysts has been ambiguous, who all say they need more data. They have not examined the global warming data and even tried to use the changing boundary conditions due to melting and refreezing ice. It doesn't have a place in their models! This paradox is very simple to understand. Most, if not all of these experts work for the fossil fuel industry.

Since billions of lives are at stake and the evidence is overwhelming that global warming is occurring at rates never before seen by the human race, this is not comedy. It is murder, on a global scale, that is happening at the same time. As a scientist who actually understands the mechanics of both fields, a very rare commodity indeed, I am obligated to reveal the evidence for everyone to see. Not one single geologist has refuted these findings. Anywhere. They cannot confirm the linkage without more data, but the average length of time between mega-quakes for the first 100 years had been one per decade, and now nearly once per year for the last eight years. One stated that the seven mega-quakes of the mid-20th century were an aberration, but did not explain it. He wanted to wait 10,000 years to confirm the data. The point is that some scientists spend their lives placing angels on the head of a pin. Responsible ones find the WHY and HOW and prove it scientifically. Speculation is the propaganda we see in the elections from the politicians. Anyone can check this data independently, run the numbers, and come to the same conclusions rationally. I ask anyone to find a valid counterexample and show its relevance.

Why is this so important? Let's start with Fukushima. Two-thirds of all the nuclear reactors on this planet are built at sea level. There are 67 in the USA, with four more being built, at sea level. They are all vulnerable to rising sea levels most certainly, but they are also vulnerable to tsunamis. The total radiation release into the environment from Fukushima has been larger than that from Chernobyl. Multiply that by hundreds worldwide and you begin to see the threat.

I have studied the geology texts at length, and no one has a plausible theory that explains mega-quakes. In fact, no one has been able to predict the size, location, and frequency of earthquakes in the entire history of the field. Well, it looks like I am the first to predict when, how frequent, and how large, if not where. Maybe somebody smarter than I can come along and predict where they will occur.

The 17 largest quakes ever measured were all along the Pacific Rim, or "The Ring of Fire". Well, that's a good guess that zeroes in on about 5% of the world's surface area. The DC quake does not fall into that zone, nor the quake that recently struck in Italy. Neither were mega-quakes, but they were very large as compared to what had come before to those areas.

There is a 15% probability of a mega-quake measuring 8.5 or higher before October 21, 2012 and another 70% chance between February 21 and April 21, 2013. I cannot tell you where because our geologist friends have no model that predicts anything at all. I can only tell you with 95% level of confidence that at least one mega-quake will happen each year, as opposed to an average of one per decade before global warming due to CO2 began in earnest. I can also tell you that earthquakes do not cause global warming, as some have been confused by the cause and effect issue. Global warming is causing these mega-quakes with much greater frequency and at predicted times.

When we design tall structures, like skyscrapers and smokestacks and large wind turbines  and solar power towers, as well as siting nuclear power plants and petroleum facilities, we look at the seismic history and fault lines under proposed sites. We design for the maximum potential quake that has ever occurred in about a thousand years, and add a factor of safety on top of that number. I've done this twice, and it's one of the most difficult engineering tasks for any major project. Engineers are far more practical than scientists. They build stuff that people must live with.

On the other hand, politicians make decisions which impact the entire human race. Maybe it's time to let them know that they are killing us with their ignorance.

Authors Website: http://www.paulallencurto.com

Authors Bio:

Designed first all-solar home for Ryland Homes in 1974. At MITRE, led a group of 35 of the best minds in the world (including Dr. Edward Teller, among others) who performed detailed engineering, scientific, socio-economic, and political analyses of all alternative energy choices for ERDA/DOE, NSF, and MITRE in 1975-80, and designed solar power plants at Gibbs & Hill in '80-'83. These included closed cycle gas turbines driven by a power tower, solar cogeneration 100MWe plant to power the Hidalgo, NM Phelps Dodge copper smelter using the Outokumpu Oy oxygen flash smelting process, the Ridgecrest Project with the Consortium of Alternate Energies, a seven-field power tower complex with 560 MWe peak power output with 100 hours of thermal storage for a 100 MWe base load system (China Lake/Ridgecrest, CA), and a 400 million gallon per year solar-powered ethanol plant. Known as world leader in alternative energy until the collapse of the field over the Reagan years.

Worked as a utility consultant for 8 years, and later at NASA for 16 years as a scientist and engineer, as Chief Technologist, reviewing all of NASA's R&D in every field of endeavor for the NASA Inventions and Contributions Board and the NASA Administrator.

20 invention disclosures, 5 patents, 87 scientific and technical peer-reviewed papers, 51 years in the profession, and successfully completed 15 projects on time, on budget, and meeting or exceeding specifications.

Listed in Who's Who In America and Who's Who In The World for the past several years and again in 2017.