Don't believe what you hear right now on who will control congress, because it is still very much up in the air. Not only do we not have any idea how the computer programming really affects vote counts with many different locations, vendors and IT guys, but going by the polls alone there are really a TON of very close races.

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Don't believe what you hear right now on who will control congress, because it is still very much up in the air. Not only do we not have any idea how the computer programming really affects vote counts with many different locations, vendors and IT guys, but going by the polls alone there are really a TON of very close races.

Crystal ball-gazers of all types have weighed in on their predictions for the Nov. 2 election. Here are some of their opinions on what you'll see Tuesday:

- Rob Richie of Fairvote suggests that the media is getting overhyped about the prospect of a high profile recount this year, but says "the Alaska U.S. Senate race on particular could be a wild one, given the Murkowski write-in candidacy"

- In Connecticut, the CT Capitol Report says Democratic U.S. Representatives Jim Himes and Chris Murphy trail their Republican opponents, Dan Debicella and Sam Caligiuri, but each race is within 2 percent and is expected to be a horse race. Another poll by the Merriman River Group puts Caligiuri ahead by seven percent.

From Black Box Voting - our own analysis of voting equipment software, absentee and early voting rates, and the audit logs showing cheat peaks at results make us wonder why any candidate really invests in or cares about polls, other than as a mechanism to set up public expectations.

The number of voters polled in the two Connecticut surveys above were just 571 and 911, respectively. The number of votes available for cheat peeks in Shelby County Tennessee was 92,000 in August, and Los Angeles County will have early counting of approximately 1 million votes this election. Now, the cheat peeks show you ACTUAL votes, whereas the polls are just telephone surveys of people who you may or may not have selected right, who may or may not be telling you the truth.

But let's go on. Also in Connecticut, the Rose Report Election Guide - http://rosereport.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/rose_inst_nov_2010_election_gui de.pdf - reports the Blumenthal/McMahon race for the US Senate to be close, and the Malloy/Foley race for governor to be a tossup.

- In New York, a poll taken by Iona College in the 19th Congressional District race shows incumbent Democratic Congressman John Hall and Dr. Nan Hayworth in a dead heat. In fact, New York has EIGHT US House districts in play right now: 1st District, Bishop vs. Altschuler, too close to call. 13th, McMahon vs. Grimm, tight but leaning Dem. 20th, Murphy vs. Gibson, anyone's game. 22nd, Hinchey vs. Phillips, leaning to incumbent Hinchey (Dem) but he's not in the clear. 23rd, Owens vs. Doheny, too close to call. 24th, Arcuri vs. Hanna, too close to call. 25th, Maffei vs. Beurkle, leaning Dem but could go either way.

- In Minnesota, a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis shows incumbent Jim Oberstar (8th Congressional District) in the "tightest fight of his career", running even with Republican challenger Chip Cravaack.

The Rose Report Election Guide points to Minnesota's 1st Congressional District race between Tim Walz and Randy Demmer as a squeaker, and agrees that the Oberstar/Cravaack race will be tight.

- In California, a SurveyUSA poll says the Prop 19 marijuana initiative is in trouble but who knows; even the SurveyUSA numbers seem to be bouncing all over the place. The same survey reports Republican US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina to be dropping like a stone in her bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer.

- Karl Rove reportedly invested a million dollars in defeating Attorney General candidate Kamala Harris. Indirect bankrollers are reported to include oil companies and opponents to California's tough stance on environmental issues.

The Rose Report Election Guide delves into Calif. state races, citing the 12th District State Senate race as up for grabs, and the 5th, 10th, 15th, 30th, 35th, and 68th assembly districts as mighty tight.

It's picks for could-go-either-way in the US House are Calif. US House districts 3, 11, 18, 20 and 47, and it still rates the Boxer-Fiorina US Senate race as very close. It also puts the Calif. governor race between Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown as a toss-up, though the SurveyUSA report has that one with an 8 point margin for Brown.

- Missouri, according to a comparison of its Secretary of State voter statistics with its US Census statistics, shows fifteen counties with more than 100 percent voter registration:
Reynolds County, 125.8 percent
Putnam County, 109.9 percent
Butler County, 104.3 percent
Gentry County, 103.9 percent
Mercer County, 103.6 percent
Shelby County, 103.2 percent
Schuyler County, 101.6 percent
Carter County, 101.5 percent
Worth County, 101.4 percent
Ozark County, 100.8 percent
Dade County, 100.7 percent
Holt County, 100.6 percent
Pemiscot County, 100.6 percent
Howard County, 100.4 percent
Ralls County, 100.1 percent

(BBV comment: Have the 2010 Census numbers even been released yet? If not, wouldn't this data be comparing 2010 voter numbers with decade-old census stats?) You can take a closer look at the statistical assumptions for the above numbers here:
http://missouri.watchdog.org/5822/fifteen-missouri-counties-have-more-voters-tha n-census-population/?utm_source=MO_Subscriptions&utm_campaign=5210b86f7d-More_vo ters_thab_census_population_in_Missouri&utm_medium=email

- Maine: A poll conducted by Critical Insights indicated that races for both of Maine's congressional districts are now in a statistical dead heat. It also shows Republican Paul LePage with a solid lead in the governor's race. The poll, commissioned by MaineToday Media shows Republican Dean Scontras leading Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree for the first time, with 45 percent compared to 41 percent in their 1st District congressional race. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud (Mish-OH') had 44 percent to Jason Levesque's 40 percent.

A note from BBV - Something to watch in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts is the trend difference between hand count and machine count locations. All of these states have a large number of hand count jurisdictions, and all have their voting machines controlled by the LHS Associates, a private contractor. Hand count results differed from machine count results in several recent elections.

The Rose Report has the Maine governor's race rated a toss-up, as well as Maine's first district.

In the For-What-It's-Worth department, surveys conducted by Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News show Republican Sharron Angle leading Harry Reid in Nevada.

- Fox News has Colorado Republican Ken Buck closing strong in his bid to unseat Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

- In Illinois, Fox News reports that Rep. Mark Kirk doubled his 2-point lead and now leads Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent. In the Illinois gubernatorial election, Republican state Sen. Bill Brady is said to Brady leads Pat Quinn by 6 points, 44 percent to 38 percent.

- In Washington State, Fox has Republican Dino Rossi trailing Democrat Patty Murray by 2 percent for the US Senate.

- And in Ohio, according to the poll for Fox News, Democratic Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland has been unable to close the gap between him and his Republican challenger, former Rep. John Kasich.

Now let's compare prognostications for Fox News with the Rose Report: It lists Nevada's Reid/Angle race as a toss-up; agrees that Colorado's Buck/Bennet is a toss-up; and adds that Colorado's 3rd US House district (Salazar vs. Tipton) is up for grabs, with 3rd (Markey vs. Gardner) and 7th districts (Perlmutter vs Frazier) close. The Rose Report also rates Illinois' Kirk/Giannoulias race a toss-up, and its Quinn/Brady Governor's race anyone's guess. It considers the Rossi/Murray race a toss-up and adds Washington US House district 2 (Larsen vs. Koster) a toss-up, with a nod towards a Republican lean in Washington's 3rd District (Heck/Herrera). Yes, it agrees that Ohio's governor race is up for grabs, and adds Ohio's sixth district as a toss-up (Wilson vs Johnson).

I didn't get to your state yet?

From various sources, here are the races to watch according to pollsters (and as we all know, the pollsters are often out of whack with the voting machines)...

- Alabama: US House 2nd District between Bobby Bright and Martha Roby is anyone's to win. Too close to call.

- Arizona House races are hopping around like popcorn: The 5th (Mitchell vs Schweikert), 7th (Grijalva vs. McClung) and 8th (Giffords vs Kelly) are all too close to call. And don't rule out a change of fortune in the 1st and 3rd (Kirkpatrick vs Gosar and Hulburd vs. Quayle, respectively). Republicans have a slight advantage in these two districts, but nothing is locked in.

- Arkansas: Lincoln/Boozman US Senate race a little tight, leaning Republican; 1st US House District Causey/Crawford rated a toss-up.

- Florida: Three-way US Senate race (Crist/Rubio/Meek) with a slight edge to the Republican but anything could happen; Governor's race (Sink vs. Scott) up in the air; US House 2nd (Boyd/Southerland) slight lean hinting at Republican win, 12th (Edwards/Ross) meandering towards the red as well, 22nd (Klein/West) grab your lugnuts, boys, could be a rocky ride; 24th (Kosmas/Adams) whispering "Republican", and 25th (Garcia/Rivera) also trending toward the elephants.

- Georgia: US House 2nd district rated a toss-up between Sanford Bishop and Mike Keown.

- Hawaii: Leaning towards the Democrat in the gubernatorial race (Abercrombie vs. Aiona); Hawaii is so troubled in its election management that one might see surprises. They tried the Internet, they said they couldn't afford their own elections, their state elections director was booted out; with election administration this bad who knows what to expect.

- Idaho: 1st District for US House is on thin ice. Minnick vs. Labrador, no one knows who's gonna win this one.

- Indiana: US Senate race (Coats/Ellsworth) close but may favor Republican win; US House disticts both the 2nd and the 9th are toss-ups (Donnelly/Walorski and Hill/Young, respectively).

- Iowa: Nothing super-close, but the Democrat has a battle on his hands to overtake the Republican for governor (Culver vs. Branstad) and in Iowa's 1st and 2nd House districts, the Republicans are trailing by a bit (Braley/Lange and Loebsack/Meeks, respectively)

- Kansas: Politically, no race seems to be close, but in terms of complete concealment of election processes, Kansas is now in a close race with Utah for the crown of "worst place to vote in America." Both states are so allergic to public right to know that even the candidates will have a tough time learning anything about their own election. Not a close election? Trust us, you got clobbered. But you are forbidden to verify this.

- Kentucky: US Senate Republican Rand Paul has been projected ahead of Democrat Jack Conway by anywhere from 10 to 20 percent, which one would think would take this race out of the questionable category, but the Rose Report has it at just a bit of a lean to the Republican. It's controversial, Rand Paul is not the annointed pick from the Washington DC Beltway elite, but popular among a vast following. This is definitely one to watch. The Kentucky 6th District US House race (Chandler/Barr) is said to be up in the air right now.

- Louisiana has just one close race according to the pundits - 2nd House district, Cedric Richmand vs. Joseph Cao. But anything can happen in Louisiana, where a stack of $20 bills in a manila envelope can create a reversal of political fortune in a hurry. Just ask their former state Elections Director. (I think he's shed his ankle bracelets by now.)

- Maryland: 1st District is a toss-up for the US House (Kratovil vs Harris)

- Massachusetts: The governor's race is tight. Patrick and Baker are fighting it out, as are Keating and Perry in the 10th US House district.

- Michigan has a mighty-tighty in House District 7 (Schauer against Walberg). Maybe few close looks at the governor's race (Bernero vs. Snyder, looking kinda strong for the Republican) and its 1st House district (McDowell vs Benishek, currently leaning Republican) and also the 9th District (Peters vs. Raczkowski, leaning Democrat).

- Mississippi: The House 1st and 4th are in play. Childers vs Nunnalee, too close to call. Taylor vs. Palazzo, too close to call.

- Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) said to be tipping the scales against Robin Carnahan for the US Senate. It's the opposite in Missouri's 3rd US House District, where Russ Carnahan, Democrat, is hinting at a win over Ed Martin. And Missouri's 4th District (Skelton/Hartzler) is anyone's guess right now.

- New Hampshire: US Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte has a slight lead over Democrat Paul Hodes; Democrat Lynch has a small projected lead over Republican Stephen for the governor's office; Shea-Porter (D) looks to be losing her luster in the 1st district, with the scales tipping slightly to Frank Guinta; and Ann McClane Custer has a toss-up on her hands in the 2nd district in her race against Charlie Bass.

- New Jersey: Third House district is in play. John Adler vs. Jon Runyan. And New Jersey, the home of the absentee felons, responded by loosening up controls on absentees, so this one may bear watching as the votes continue to roll in.

- New Mexico: Currently two US House districts are seriously in play - 1st District (Heinrich vs Barela), and 2nd District (Teague vs. Pearce). The governor's mansion looks like it may go Republican in the Denish vs Martinez race, but no chickens should be counted yet.

- North Carolina: For the US Senate, pundits are betting on Burr (R) over Marshall (D) for the US Senate, but it's still tight. US House Districts: 2nd leaning to Etheridge (D) over Ellmers (R) but not a done deal yet; in the 7th, McIntyre (D) has a slight edge over Pantano (R); there's a flat-out battle waging between Kissell and Johnson in the 8th, and in the Shuler/Miller race in the 11th, they say it's a lean towards Dem.

- Oklahoma: Move along, nothing to see here. Vote counts concealed, as usual, winning margins comfortable, trust us. At least Oklahoma is reasonably cooperative with public records.

- Oregon: The governor's race is considered to be fully in play (Kitzhaber vs Dudley), anybody's game at this point. House 5th District also up for grabs (Schrader vs. Bruun). In Oregon everything is absentee, and in Oregon they start scanning the absentee ballots early, and in Oregon it is not illegal for the insiders to look at results. So its just us outsiders who don't know who is really winning.

- Pennsylvania: A real nail-biter for the US Senate, between Sestak and Toomey; Slight lean to the right between Onorato and Corbett in the gubernatorial race; races are wide open in the US House 8th (Murphy/Fitzpatrick), 10th (Carney/Marino), and 11th (Canjorski/Barletta).

- Rhode Island: The three-way governor's race is still up in the air (Chafee, Robitaille, Caprio). In Rhode Island's House District 1, the Democrat (Cicilline) is leading but the Republican (Loughlin) is gaining on him. (I consider Rhode Island to the land of the legislative oxymoron; at one point they tried to pass a bill to outlaw corruption -- that's right, a law to outlaw breaking the law -- but it failed. I'd watch the voter lists there; they use one of those Etch-a-Sketch type pads for DMV signatures which they then export electronically to an Internet voter registration system. Darn shaky system, unless you like stuffed lists and free-for-all voter posers in your absentee votes.)

- South Carolina: Toss-up in the 5th US House district between John Spratt and John Loughlin. And obviously we'll all be interested to see what happens in the crazy Al Green race for the US Senate.

- South Dakota At Large district for the US House, we've got a toss-up between Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Kristi Noem. And be nice. In South Dakota, they don't have to give you public records unless you ask real nice. It is one of the only states in the US with no Freedom of Information law written into its statutes.

- The Tennessee 4th District has a jump ball in the air, between Lincoln Davis and Scott DesJarlais. Also, in Memphis (Shelby County) there is a controversial (read: tamper inviting) "consolidation measure" that needs extra-close scrutiny.

- The close House races in Texas are in the 17th, 23rd and 27th. Lean to the left - the 27th, between Ortiz and Farenthold; Lean to the right - the 17th, between Edward and Flores; stand up sit down fight fight fight - the 23rd, between Rodriguez and Canseco which appears to be a dead heat.

- Virginia: We've got another dead heat in Virginia House Dist. 11, between Connolly and Fimian; close, but slight tip towards the Republican in the 2nd (Nye vs Rigell); with a counterbalancing tip towards the Democrat in the 9th (Boucher vs. Griffith).

- West Virginia: The West Virginia US Senate Race between Joe Manchin and John Raese is considered a toss-up. Also, West Virginia's 1st district (Oliverio/McKinley) is up for grabs right now.

- Wisconsin: They say Feingold (D) is in trouble against Johnson (R) right now in the US Senate race, as is Barrett (D) against Walker (R) for the governor's race. Wisconsin's 7th district (Lassa/Duffy) in wide open at this point.

- Wyoming: Sorry, I have no information. Republicans and antelope all the way I expect.

Authors Website: http://www.blackboxvoting.org

Authors Bio:
Bev Harris is executive director of Black Box Voting, Inc. an advocacy group committed to restoring citizen oversight to elections.