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New Mexico Democratic Caucus Recount Results in more Questions than Answers

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Steven Leser       (Page 1 of 1 pages)     Permalink

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Rewind back to Super Tuesday. In all the excitement about the evening’s events, the fact that New Mexico’s result ended up as too close to call may have been drowned out. By the next morning, New Mexico’s tally stood at Clinton with 68,659 votes or 49% of the vote and 13 all important delegates, and Obama with 67,538 votes or 48% of the vote and 12 delegates. There were approximately 17,000 provisional ballots cast that had yet to be counted along with a few precincts. New Mexico announced that in addition to counting the provisional ballots, they would conduct a complete hand recount to ensure that all votes were tallied correctly. 

Election night and for a few days thereafter, I had referred CNN’s exit poll information for a clue on how things might turn out and I was continually surprised at how close the computed results were because the exit polls did not support the count. The exit polls showed Obama tied with Clinton for the women's vote at 46-46 with Edwards, Richardson and other receiving the other 8%. The exit polls showed Obama winning the male vote by approximately 53% to 39% (I am writing this from memory and you will see why below). Based on these exit polls, I concluded that the recount would give Obama a clear victory by about 5%.


Just a short time ago, the final numbers for New Mexico were released. According to the recount, Hillary Clinton won with a 1,709-vote margin over Obama, 73,105 to 71,396. I was shocked by this result. I went back to CNN and see that they have changed the amounts for the exit polls http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM . CNN now shows Hillary with an edge among women of 52% to 46% in the exit poll and Obama with an edge among men of 53% to 43%. How and why does the exit poll tally change a week after the election?


Nor does the fact that New Mexico’s contest was a caucus invalidate the results of exit polls. New Mexico’s contest is called a caucus but is conducted much more like a primary; see this document by the New Mexico state Democratic Party --> http://www.nmdemocrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1118155 meaning that exit polls are a valid way to determine how people voted.

 Exit polls are an important tool in determining whether an election is conducted properly and without fraud. UN election monitoring agencies routinely use exit polls around the globe to determine if elections were fair. On the basis of exit polls alone the UN and the US have accused other countries and leaders of election fraud. I am not accusing anyone of anything, but these discrepancies cannot be allowed to stand without some clarification. Someone is going to have to explain why the exit polls were altered and what mistakes were made in either the exit polls or the actual vote. I’ve sent an email to CNN and will follow-up with an email to the New Mexico State Democratic Party that includes a link to this article. I will post any responses in an upcoming article.


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A political blogger for the International Business Times, Steve Leser is a hot national political pundit. He has appeared on MSNBC's Coundown with Keith Olbermann, Comedy Central's Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Russia Today's (RT) Crosstalk with (more...)

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