We usually prepare for the last war, and a new one hits us, as they say.
The accurate scenario is Dems win roughly 35 or more House seats and 6 Senate seats (take your pick of the Cook Report, TIA report, etc). Fraud, or cheating, aif it has occurred, will be at a discount from that. Twenty house seats and 4 Senate seats could well be fraud, depending on the baseline you accept above.
Remember the casino metaphor: it's not that the gamblers never win at a casino rigged game, if that occurred the game would die out and little money would be made by the house.
A rigged game is instead a systematically underperforming game that features both outright losses as well as muted gains. Thus 4 senate seats can be bigtime fraud in a 5 or 6 seat margin.
So, like vote counters who should count every vote before announcing decisions or at least try to, we will have to at a minimum wake up in the morning if not wait many days before we know whether the overall results have been tweaked. A smart fraud stategy could well include giving the Dems what they deserve in the Eastern Time Zone and Central Time Zone, leading every one to relax, celebrate and go to bed, and then steal more in the Mountain and Pacific Time zone, ending up with muted numbers....
So, we too have to wait until all the facts are in.
And so too, should the media. We should DEMAND they wait to call elections particularly where there are paper ballots in the mix, because election night results will be distorted in favor of Republicans because of so many Democrats opting out of e-voting! This will allow perception of reality to get ahead of itself and perhaps even lead to inappropriate concessions on the part of some candidates.
The Zogby exit poll for the 50th congressional district should give us some idea of the partisan spread between electronic and nonelectronic ballots. it should be ready around 8 p.m. PST
Even if the 50th is not close for some reason, this will be an important ratio that will probably roughly hold up in other districts that have paper ballots. It will tell us by how much the Dems have spotted the republicans a lead from paper ballots at the polls (wherever available) because in the very best scenario, even when the local officials are not delaying for 2 days, they don't even arrive at central counting facilities under an hour or more after polls close.
Particularly on this last point about spotting a lead, your help in spreading the word here and alerting media to the issues is very much needed. We filed an emergency appeal in the San Diego appellate court tonight and will hopefully perfect and get a hearing 10 a.m. Wed morning, because they are promising, in san Diego County, not to even start to count ballots on paper received at the polls, which are not provisional and have the same status as normal ballots, until Thursday, creating a "separate but equal" second-class ballot. That's offensive to the Constitution to delay counting based on a ballot type that increases election official accountability relative to invisible electronic ballots.
The accurate scenario is Dems win roughly 35 or more House seats and 6 Senate seats (take your pick of the Cook Report, TIA report, etc). Fraud, or cheating, aif it has occurred, will be at a discount from that. Twenty house seats and 4 Senate seats could well be fraud, depending on the baseline you accept above.
Remember the casino metaphor: it's not that the gamblers never win at a casino rigged game, if that occurred the game would die out and little money would be made by the house.
A rigged game is instead a systematically underperforming game that features both outright losses as well as muted gains. Thus 4 senate seats can be bigtime fraud in a 5 or 6 seat margin.
So, like vote counters who should count every vote before announcing decisions or at least try to, we will have to at a minimum wake up in the morning if not wait many days before we know whether the overall results have been tweaked. A smart fraud stategy could well include giving the Dems what they deserve in the Eastern Time Zone and Central Time Zone, leading every one to relax, celebrate and go to bed, and then steal more in the Mountain and Pacific Time zone, ending up with muted numbers....
So, we too have to wait until all the facts are in.
And so too, should the media. We should DEMAND they wait to call elections particularly where there are paper ballots in the mix, because election night results will be distorted in favor of Republicans because of so many Democrats opting out of e-voting! This will allow perception of reality to get ahead of itself and perhaps even lead to inappropriate concessions on the part of some candidates.
The Zogby exit poll for the 50th congressional district should give us some idea of the partisan spread between electronic and nonelectronic ballots. it should be ready around 8 p.m. PST
Even if the 50th is not close for some reason, this will be an important ratio that will probably roughly hold up in other districts that have paper ballots. It will tell us by how much the Dems have spotted the republicans a lead from paper ballots at the polls (wherever available) because in the very best scenario, even when the local officials are not delaying for 2 days, they don't even arrive at central counting facilities under an hour or more after polls close.
Particularly on this last point about spotting a lead, your help in spreading the word here and alerting media to the issues is very much needed. We filed an emergency appeal in the San Diego appellate court tonight and will hopefully perfect and get a hearing 10 a.m. Wed morning, because they are promising, in san Diego County, not to even start to count ballots on paper received at the polls, which are not provisional and have the same status as normal ballots, until Thursday, creating a "separate but equal" second-class ballot. That's offensive to the Constitution to delay counting based on a ballot type that increases election official accountability relative to invisible electronic ballots.
