Xi Jinping has inserted himself and his country into the Ukraine war situation. The question I am posing is manifold, and admittedly very interesting. Or rather, the answers are going to be very interesting.
Is Xi serious about brokering an end to the war? Is he serious about helping his Russian counterpart to find a way to save face while getting out of Ukraine? Is this even a viable possibility? Can it be accomplished? For the moment, let's assume the answer to all those questions is yes. The end to this war would be a substantial blue chip for Xi at a time when he could use a few chips. It would certainly elevate him, and China, to new heights in established world leadership. But several other things are going on right now, and Xi may have stepped in at the wrong time. Timing is everything, as they say.
Currently, Ukraine is anticipating a sizable escalation of the war as Russia is assumed to be readying a Spring offensive. That would be a bad time to be suggesting everyone lay down their arms and start peace negotiations.
A guest on one of this morning's news programs was Leon Panetta. He served several administrations in capacities as CIA Director, Secretary of Defense, and White House Chief of Staff. He suggested that we needn't talk much about China's involvement, and instead concentrate on helping Ukraine push the Russian forces out of their country. That, he said, was the best way to make Russian President Putin see the futility of continuing the war, and demonstrate that he could actually lose to Ukraine. He had a good point, but I feel we do need to analyze whether Xi has a good point, too. Or whether this whole Chinese intervention is only so much hot air. If Xi is actually serious, and if he can pull it off, somehow, he would accomplish much more for China's future than anyone in the West has dreamed possible.
Putin needs a way out of all this. His predictions and plans have all fallen through pretty dramatically. He has killed so many Russians with his war, that the nation is turning on him. Those body bags start to mount up back home.
It may be time to start supporting China's efforts to discover a way out of this war. I, for one, am willing to support them wholeheartedly, if they are serious, and not just blowing smoke. The Chinese Communist Party has a lengthy reputation for just blowing smoke. And the sanctions that would be levied against them if they start pushing lethal supplies to the Russians, could be catastrophic to their already floundering economy. Xi has Putin's ear. But if he gives Putin what he wants (lethal materials), he will have lost the opportunity to achieve world-wide respect. So, is Xi blowing smoke to mask his pending supply of lethal materials to Russia, or is he serious about cementing a positive reputation for himself and his nation. Dictatorships don't have all that comfortable a status in the world today. This could change that, or their reputation could crash and burn. There is much at stake. Let's hope he is not just puffing on a cigar.
I really don't know how Putin saves face in this mess. He can't just claim he has disposed of "all the Nazis," because President Zelenskyy certainly isn't going to back him up on that. Or might he? It might be enough to give Putin a reason to go home. Grasping at straws here? Yeah, pretty much.
