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Why the U.S. Should Pivot to Diplomacy in Iran

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Mark Lansvin
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The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by Israel's recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, has thrust the Middle East into a perilous new chapter. President Donald Trump's approach to this crisis has been a mix of diplomatic overtures, cautious restraint, and reluctant support for Israel's actions, reflecting a complex interplay of domestic political pressures and global strategic concerns. However, as the region teeters on the brink of a broader war, the United States must prioritize de-escalation and a return to diplomacy to avoid being drawn into another costly and destabilizing conflict.

Since taking office, President Trump has expressed a strong preference for diplomacy over military action in dealing with Iran's nuclear ambitions. His administration has pursued negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear program, with special envoy Steve Witkoff leading talks in Oman aimed at securing a deal to limit uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump has repeatedly emphasized his desire to avoid war, warning that a military conflict could "blow" diplomatic efforts and undermine his broader goal of reducing U.S. involvement in foreign wars. In a Truth Social post, he urged Iran to "make a deal" before further escalation, citing his success in brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan as a model for resolving the Israel-Iran conflict.

Despite these efforts, Trump's diplomacy has faced significant challenges. Iran has resisted U.S. demands for a complete halt to its nuclear enrichment program, insisting on its right to limited enrichment for civilian purposes. The talks, which were set to continue in Oman, were abruptly canceled after Israel's strikes, with Iran declaring negotiations "unjustifiable" while under attack. Trump's frustration has been evident, as he noted that key Iranian negotiators, including senior military officials and nuclear scientists, were killed in Israel's attacks, complicating diplomatic prospects. Yet, he has maintained an optimistic tone, suggesting that Iran could still come to the table to avoid further devastation.

Israel's military campaign, dubbed "Operation Rising Lion," began with a wave of airstrikes on June 13, 2025, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile sites, and key military figures, including Hossein Salami, chief of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Mohammad Bagheri, Iran's commander-in-chief. Israel's stated goal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, which it views as an existential threat. The strikes have caused significant damage, with reports indicating that Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant may have lost most of its 15,000 centrifuges due to a power cut caused by Israeli attacks. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, killing civilians and escalating the conflict into a tit-for-tat cycle of violence.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued this aggressive strategy despite Trump's explicit warnings against actions that could derail U.S.-led nuclear talks. Reports suggest that Israel initially sought U.S. military support for a broader operation, including a proposed assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which Trump rejected, citing the risk of inflaming the conflict and destabilizing the region. Netanyahu's decision to proceed unilaterally has been seen by some analysts as an attempt to present Trump with a fait accompli, forcing the U.S. to back Israel's actions to maintain its alliance.

The U.S. has so far avoided direct offensive involvement in the conflict, focusing instead on defensive support for Israel, such as replenishing missiles for its Iron Dome system and deploying a Navy destroyer to help intercept Iranian reprisal strikes. However, Trump has acknowledged that U.S. involvement could escalate, stating, "It's possible we could get involved," if Iran targets American interests or personnel. Iran, for its part, has accused the U.S. of complicity in Israel's attacks, pointing to the close coordination between the two allies and the U.S.'s provision of weapons and intelligence.

This dynamic risks pulling the U.S. into a broader conflict, despite Trump's stated desire to avoid another Middle East war. Domestic pressures within the Republican Party are intensifying this risk. Hardline voices like Senator Lindsey Graham have urged Trump to "go all in" and ensure Iran's nuclear program is eradicated, while "America First" advocates, including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and commentator Tucker Carlson, argue that U.S. involvement contradicts Trump's campaign promise to prioritize domestic interests over foreign entanglements. These divisions highlight the political tightrope Trump must walk as he navigates the crisis.

The United States must act decisively to de-escalate the Israel-Iran conflict and recommit to diplomacy for several compelling reasons. First, a prolonged war risks catastrophic regional consequences. Iran's ability to retaliate with advanced missiles and drones, potentially targeting U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf or disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, could destabilize the global economy and draw in other regional powers. The human toll is already significant, with over 224 Iranian civilians reported killed and thousands displaced, alongside 24 Israeli civilian deaths. Further escalation could lead to a wider conflict, costing countless lives and trillions of dollars, as Senator Bernie Sanders has warned.

Second, military action is unlikely to achieve the goal of permanently halting Iran's nuclear program. Experts, including Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency, have noted that while Israel's strikes have damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, the program's resilience and Iran's ability to replace key personnel mean that a military solution is temporary at best. A 2015 nuclear deal under President Obama, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, demonstrated that diplomacy can effectively limit Iran's nuclear ambitions while avoiding bloodshed. Reinstating a similar agreement, with stricter verification measures, could achieve the same result without the risks of war.

Third, U.S. involvement in another Middle East conflict would undermine Trump's "America First" agenda and alienate his base. Polls indicate that many Republicans, particularly younger voters, are skeptical of unconditional support for Israel and oppose U.S. military engagement abroad. Trump's own advisors, including Vice President JD Vance and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have expressed concerns about the costs of a new war, echoing the lessons of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, which failed to advance U.S. interests and left lasting scars.

Finally, diplomacy aligns with Trump's self-professed identity as a peacemaker. His success in brokering the Abraham Accords and the India-Pakistan ceasefire shows his potential to mediate complex disputes. By pressing Israel to halt its strikes and bringing Iran back to the negotiating table, possibly with the support of mediators like Oman or Qatar, Trump could salvage his diplomatic efforts and avoid a war that could define his presidency as a failure.

To end the war, the U.S. should take immediate steps to de-escalate tensions. First, Trump should publicly call for a ceasefire, leveraging his relationship with Netanyahu to pause Israel's strikes while urging Iran to refrain from further retaliation. Second, the U.S. should work through regional mediators to restart nuclear talks, offering Iran a clear path to sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable limits on its nuclear program. Finally, Congress should support measures like Senator Tim Kaine's war powers resolution to ensure that any U.S. military action against Iran requires congressional approval, reinforcing the constitutional checks on executive power.

The Israel-Iran conflict is a test of Trump's leadership and his commitment to avoiding the mistakes of past administrations. By choosing diplomacy over war, he can protect American interests, prevent a regional catastrophe, and cement his legacy as a leader who prioritizes peace over conflict. The time to act is now-- before the Middle East spirals further into chaos.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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