As you may recall, once upon a time -- it was called the end of the 20th century -- a famed Republican strategist named Karl Rove had a marvelous scheme to make the Grand Old Party the majority political organization going well into the 21st century. And he had the perfect presidential candidate to make his dream of a conservative Republican-leaning "ownership society" come true.
How is that project working out?
In 2002 I was driving cross country when All Things Considered ran a 10/13 story about a then-new book by Democratic strategists Judis and Texeira called The Emerging Democratic Majority that predicted that overwhelming demographic trends would inevitably give the Democratic Party a decades' long lock on the electoral majority.
How is that prediction working out?
Now that the results of the 2012 campaign are in, with a Democrat winning reelection for the second time since the world war (might have been three reelections had Kennedy not been killed), with liberals whipping Republican butt, and the New Deal remaining a major part of the American landscape, we can come to a solid conclusion.
Every major election cycle there are claims that the losing party is in really big trouble and unlikely to recover for years, all the more so when they lose big. Every major election cycle there are counterclaims that the claims that the losing party is in really big trouble are exaggerated. And that has been generally true.
But the days when the two parties were roughly equivalent are, as Judis and Texeira predicted, coming to and end as population demographics and the dysfunctions inherent to the party of
Republicans should be afraid, very afraid.