Reprinted from robertreich.substack.com
Happy Presidents Day. It's a good day to contemplate whether Joe Biden has a prayer of keeping a Democratic House and Senate next year. Call me a hopeless optimist, but I think he does.
Yes, I know: Republicans are suppressing votes, Democrats are hopeless at messaging, Biden's poll numbers are in the basement. But let me give you ten reasons why I think there's a decent chance Democrats can maintain control of both the House and the Senate, and maybe even gain some seats.
First: It's likely that job growth between now and November will remain strong (if the Fed doesn't ruin everything by raising interest rates too high, too soon). We're still 3.5 million jobs short of where we were in February 2020 - giving the economy lots of room to grow. Biden and the Democrats can take credit for putting the economy back on track.
Second: Inflation will begin edging downward, as supplies of goods increase and demand shifts back to services - removing the one big economic negative. If Omicron infections continue to drop, the decline in inflation could start as early as April.
Third: When the pandemic seems to be over - and there's a good chance it will feel over by the spring - the nation will breathe a huge collective sigh of relief, and Biden can take credit for getting shots into the arms of 80 percent of Americans.
Fourth: If tensions continue or escalate with Russia over Ukraine - or, lord help us, Russia invades Ukraine - America will unite behind its Commander-in-Chief. Republicans and Democrats in Congress are already demonstrating a remarkable degree of unity over Russia. War is horrific, of course, but it tends to garner support for those in power (at least in its months).
Fifth: Democrats will almost certainly pass Build Back Better in some form this spring. It won't be nearly as ambitious as the original, but probably enough to generate some visible benefits for families. Republicans will, of course, oppose it, which means even more help for Democrats in November. To pay for Build Back Better, Democrats will increase taxes on corporations and the super-rich (even Joe Manchin is in favor of doing this). Republicans will surely fight these measures to protect rich corporations. Another big plus for Democrats.
Nearly 4 million kids have been pushed into poverty since Manchin, Sinema, and the GOP let the expanded Child Tax Credit expire in December. Poverty is a policy choice.February 19th 2022
3,505 Retweets9,439 LikesSixth: The courts are pushing back against Republican gerrymandering, giving Democrats better opportunities to hold on to or gain seats.
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