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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 11/9/16

Why Almost Everyone Was Wrong

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On September 10, 2015 (that's right, 15) I published the following on Daily Kos: "Donald Trump will become the GOP nominee for president. The odds are in his favor that he will be elected president as well." I was jeered at, belittled, and vilified.

As a political scientist, I expected a modicum of respect for my analysis. But the fact was, no one was interested because they considered all discussion of Donald Trump emotionally, not rationally. Indeed, that is exactly what Trump wanted; he was, after all, going after the support of a seriously irrational crowd.

Now that Trump has won the general election, I am republishing the ten reasons I stated to support my prediction. Yes, I am crowing a bit, although I am not a Trump supporter in the slightest. Actually, I am more bitter than proud. After all, unlike the professional pundits I have been unemployed and unemployable for the last four years or so. My income as an author and freelance writer is one or two percent of what the least well paid pundit makes. That's right, one or two percent.

But the main reason is I would like readers to take a minute, set aside their emotions, and grasp what it is that stood out fourteen months ago that pretty much no one else saw and that almost everyone opposed to Trump continues to not see. So here it is, complete with references to long-forgotten primary opponents.

Donald Trump will become the GOP nominee for president. The odds are in his favor that he will be elected president as well.

1. Almost everyone who read those two sentences immediately scoffed. Trump is too...Trump. So? That is why he is leading in the polls. That is why his supporters support him. Tens of millions of people scoffed at Ronald Reagan for being Ronald Reagan. Tens of millions of people scoffed at George W. Bush for being George W. Bush. Candidates resonate with voters when they come across as individuals with distinct personalities.

2. The GOP base has a very strong anti-politician, anti-Congress streak. Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses as a preacher not as a politician. Barack Obama's success came because his experience was so limited, not in spite of it. Mitt Romney was chosen by the GOP in 2012 because he ignored his stint as governor of Massachusetts. The GOP pack of senators and governors are virtually indistinguishable. Of the other non-politicians, Ben Carson is picking off the support Trump hasn't and Carly Fiorina, well....

3. The GOP, the party of business and people who think they are going to strike it rich someday (inshallah), prefers successful people. Dwight D. Eisenhower's military success is legendary, as was Herbert Hoover's commercial success (and courage in Beijing during the Boxer Rebellion). Even George H. W. Bush was a successful oil man before he entered politics and his son co-owned a major league baseball team. Failure for the party usually comes when the GOP candidate is "just" a political success. Speaking of failure, what compels a failed CEO and failed Senate candidate to think she has any chance?

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Bear Kosik is a political scientist by training. His Remaking Democracy in America was published in the fall of 2018 by Stairway Press. Well-received science fiction novels (two under Hugh Dudley) are available on Amazon. Several screenplays (more...)
 

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