Send a Tweet
Most Popular Choices
Share on Facebook 2 Share on Twitter Printer Friendly Page More Sharing
OpEdNews Op Eds    H4'ed 3/10/16

White Men, Go to the End of the Line!

By       (Page 1 of 2 pages)     (# of views)   10 comments
Author 93
Follow Me on Twitter     Message Bob Burnett
Become a Fan
  (23 fans)
- Advertisement -

In 2012, Democrat Barack Obama won reelection with 51 percent of the vote compared to Republican Mitt Romney's 47 percent. Obama's victory was the result of a formidable coalition of racial minorities and progressive Whites, particularly single women. In 2016, if Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders is to prevail, they must recreate the same coalition. And, White men will be the smallest faction.

As reported by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin in "The Obama Coalition in the 2012 Election," Obama achieved victory, "by carrying 93 percent of African American voters, 71 percent of Latino voters, 73 percent of Asian American voters, and only 39 percent of white voters."

In his recent book, "Brown is the New White," Steve Phillipsclaimed Obama's victory symbolizes a new American majority: "Progressive people of color now comprise 23 percent of all the eligible voters in America, and progressive Whites account for 28 percent of all eligible voters."

The 2016 Democratic presidential candidate must mobilize the new American majority. If they do, they won't need to carry blue-collar white men to win. In 2012, Obama got the votes of only 35 percent of white men.

- Advertisement -

The groups Clinton or Sanders needs to carry are African American voters, Latino voters, Asian American voters, and progressive White voters -- particularly single women.

African American Voters: In 2012, 13 percent of voters were African American. Teixeira and Halpin noted, "[Obama's] support among African Americans was" overwhelming this year (93 percent")." Steve Phillips observed, "African Americans are the most loyal and consistent Democratic voters in the country." They are 23 percent of the Democratic vote.

- Advertisement -

Latino voters: In 2012, 10 percent of voters were Latinos. Teixeira and Halpin reported, "Hispanics increased their share in line with their growing share of the eligible electorate." Steve Phillips noted, "Latinos are now the largest group of color in the country, "making up 17 percent of the total U.S. population and 46 percent of all people of color in America." Phillips predicted more Latinos will vote in 2016; he estimated that if they have the same participation rate as in 2012 (less than 50 percent) they will be 14 percent of the Democratic vote.

Asian American voters: In 2012, 3 percent of voters were Asian American. (2 percent were of "other" race: Native American, Pacific Islanders, Arab Americans, Iranian Americans, or mixed.) Steve Phillips forecast that if, in 2016, they have the same participation rate as in 2012 (greater than 50 percent) they will be about 8 percent of the Democratic vote.

Progressive White voters: In 2012, non-Hispanic White voters were 71 percent of the electorate. In 2016, because of differential growth rates that share will decrease to 68 percent.

Of particular interest are the unmarried White women. Teixeira and Halpin reported, "President Obama did especially well among unmarried women in 2012, carrying them by 36 points (67 percent to 31 percent)... Unmarried women also made up a larger share of voters in this election--23 percent."

- Advertisement -

Extrapolating from 2012 numbers, in 2016, White non-Hispanic voters will constitute approximately 56 percent of the Democratic base. 17 percent will be unmarried White women. 16 percent will be married White women. 12 percent will be unmarried White men. And, 10 percent will be married White men.

Ranking Democratic segments. In 2016 the key Democratic voting groups will be:

Next Page  1  |  2

 

- Advertisement -

Funny 2  
Rate It | View Ratings

Bob Burnett Social Media Pages: Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer. In a previous life he was one of the executive founders of Cisco Systems.
Go To Commenting
The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Writers Guidelines
Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles
Support OpEdNews

OpEdNews depends upon can't survive without your help.

If you value this article and the work of OpEdNews, please either Donate or Purchase a premium membership.

STAY IN THE KNOW
If you've enjoyed this, sign up for our daily or weekly newsletter to get lots of great progressive content.
Daily Weekly     OpEdNews Newsletter
Name
Email
   (Opens new browser window)
 

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

Ten Telltale Signs of Republican Disease

Big Liars and The Voters Who Love Them

Obama vs. Romney: The Bottom Line

The GOP Chooses Fascism

2011 Budget Battle: Obama Wins While Democrats Lose

Obama vs. Romney: The Popularity Contest