By Robert Weiner and Charlyn Chu
With Trump and DeSantis being the only Republican candidates in double digits and accounting for over 70% of Republican voters polled, we've learned what motivates most Republican primary voters: It's fear of the "replacement theory."
In a report by the US Census, the year 2030 was identified as a demographic turning point: the main driver of population growth would be immigration, rather than natural growth due to population aging. While non-Hispanic whites are still projected to remain the largest racial group in the next 40 years, they will likely no longer constitute the majority starting in 2045.
As the United States heads towards a future marked by increased racial and ethnic diversity, the question arises: What exactly are Trump and DeSantis supporters most concerned about, and why does the anti-immigrant message resonate? The answer lies in the notion of "replacement."
The Great Replacement Theory (GRT), propagated by white nationalists, suggests that racial minorities, immigrants, and Jews are intentionally having babies and entering the country to replace white, native-born Americans.
Their anxieties about impending population shifts are clear when observing their efforts to undermine the influence of certain demographics. From gerrymandering practices to separation of families at the border and banning of black history books, their actions betray a fear of losing control in the face of changing population dynamics.
In 2021, Tucker Carlson claimed the Democratic Party was "trying to replace the current electorate with new people, more obedient voters from the Third World". An SPLC poll showed that 7/10 Republicans believed demographic changes were a real threat, driven by progressive and liberal politicians.
In 2022, Payton Gendron, perpetrator of the Buffalo shooting, cited replacement theory as his motive in a 180-page manifesto. Concerned about declining white birth rates and white genocide, his response was to target a predominantly black community.
Those who wholeheartedly believe in replacement theory appear to have a hatred towards those who are not of 'pure' white race. These racist sentiments date back to atrocities like the KKK, Jim Crow, Nazi persecution of Jews, and outdated pseudo-science that placed white Christian Europeans at the apex of racial classification pyramids.
Regrettably, even if GOP lawmakers themselves may not hold such extreme views, they often espouse replacement rhetoric to incite their voter base. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) ran ads parroting the GRT:
"Radical Democrats are planning their most aggressive move yet: a PERMANENT ELECTION INSURRECTION--Their plan to grant amnesty to 11 MILLION illegal immigrants will overthrow our current electorate and create a permanent liberal majority in Washington."
Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) tweeted "The Biden administration is sending pallets of baby formula to the border for illegal aliens, while American mothers are crying in the grocery store searching for it."
For DeSantis supporters, replacement theory is yet another reason to attack the expansion of LGBTQ+ rights as white nationalists see homosexuality as "a refusal to produce the children needed to restore a majority white nation."
Immigration and the unfounded notion of 'replacement theory' should not be sources of fear. For those who harbor such fears, it is often rooted in ignorance: thus why cultural diversity is crucial to dispel negative stereotypes and personal biases.
With a projected growth in US diversity, time may solve the problem. Increasing diversity challenges beliefs that other racial and ethnic groups are monolithic or have contradicting values, allaying fears of replacement.
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