Putin is a unique individual in modern history. We have to consider far more possibilities than most are entertaining to understand his motivations and intentions.
Some say Putin is the most wealthy man in the world. Maybe he's the wealthiest. Maybe he's just a multi-billionaire or a fractional trillionaire.
I've long written that it should be illegal to be or become a billionaire. That's because billionaires, no matter how well intentioned, have too much power. They also can have pretty much all they want in terms of material things. So what does that leave for them? Power, influence and whatever misguided attempts at influencing history and the cultural things they are attached to.
So, I speculate, what does Putin want that he doesn't already have.
Checking out his recent speech, Putin seemed to talk more about revenge, about mistreatment by the US and the west. It reminds me of Rodney Dangerfield's line, "I can't get no respect." He talks about the Russian Orethodox Church. It's always useful to throw religion into the mix of influences leading to war.
I was seduced, at first by the argument that Putin wanted assurances that Ukraine would never be accepted into NATO. I'm sorry, but I don't buy it anymore. I think that was one caveat that he put out there that he knew would not be accepted. He put a number of those kinds of false offers out hanging to make him appear to be reasonable. Joe Biden and other NATO players were not going to allow themselves to be hamstringed by that kind of obligation.
I look more in terms of explanation towards his coming to terms with China and the massive effect that had and has on his leverage on the world stage. The newly emerging nexus of power are the BRICs-- Brazil, Russia, India and China. I wouldn't be surprised to see India next and even Brazil, with strongman Bolsonaro, weak as he is, with approval ratings under 30%-- joining in some way with Putin. Certainly India and China have their strongmen who have surely made themselves billionaires with their power.
Oh sure, the US and NATO have made it easy for Putin, providing cover with their Nukes in Poland and NATO forces incredibly nearby. One simply has to mention the Cuba Missile standoff Kennedy dealt with to see the comparability. Others have pointed out that we pissed off the Russian bear, and there's surely some truth in that but I don't think that fully covers Putin's motivations.
I think there is more going on. We have this incredibly powerful incredibly rich authoritarian who has everything POSPOTUS moron Trump wanted, and he's not satisfied. AND... he has the power and resources to reach for more.
Maybe he'll take over Ukraine. Maybe he'll take massive concessions, like free use of its land for Russian pipelines, instead of the big fees Russia is currently paying. Maybe he'll take some cultural elements that make the Russian Orthodox Church happy. Maybe he'll clean out some of the spook and military stuff the US and NATO or whatever western agencies have placed in Ukraine.
But I think part of this whole process is Putin the ultra wealthy, ultra powerful, plenipotentiary man finding meaning, finding his full, yet to be reached potential. It's savage. It's dangerous. It's unknown territory. It is terrifying. Putin is a unique individual in modern history. We have to consider far more possibilities than most are entertaining in understanding his motivations and intentions.
