The North Koreans sent the U.S. a gift on its July 4th Independence Day. In the morning, -- their time, it was still
July 3rd evening in Washington -- they launched a missile. It reached a height
of 1741 miles (2802 Km), which was 400 miles higher than the earlier May
14 launch. Calling it the Hwasong-14, they have claimed it has a range of
10,000 km and can reach anywhere in the world -- a range greater
than 5,500 km is considered an ICBM. This is now their 11th missile
launch this year and their expertise cannot be denied. It is not
unlikely that they already have a warhead to fit since rational thinking
leads to concurrent development.
Now
what? The U.S. can send additional men or warships to the area in a
show of force. But what else? The President leans on China in a tweet
response but China has previously demurred.
The
Chinese President Xi Jinping was on a visit to Moscow and at a joint
news conference with President Putin, the latter proposed pushing
forward their joint initiative on North Korea. It calls for freezes in
ballistic-missile tests and also dealing with U.S. deployment of weapons
in South Korea. He is referring of course to the THAAD ABM system
installed in South Korea.
The
Russians are particularly worried about the girdling of their country
with ABM systems. Mr. Putin has pointed out previously how these have
destabilized the prior balance. Russia now is faced with a launch-on-warning choice -- a kind of use it or lose it, because a U.S. first
strike coupled with the ABMs present the potential of neutralizing the
Russian ICBMs.
The Dr. Strangelove
who thought up this first-strike capability must have been just about as
nuts as the movie character for by creating a hair trigger he has
brought us to the doorstep of World War III.
Will
we see reason and dismantle these sites, or will Russia eventually be
forced to eliminate them unilaterally? And then what will be the
consequences? Is a reality TV star and property/casino developer the
best equipped to handle them? Unsettling questions all of them, but
this is the world we live in.
While
our president speculates on China to 'put a heavy move on North Korea
and end this nonsense once and for all' in his tweet, he forgets it is
probably more likely China is helping its ally along to secure a bigger
and bigger bargaining chip. Are the days of the THAAD system in South
Korea numbered? One can add, it is not particularly liked by the new
South Korean president for it makes his country a target, and he, in
contrast with his predecessor, favors a political diplomatic strategy in
dealing with the North.
