As world tensions heighten over Ukraine, some fear this crisis might grow into a great geopolitical catastrophe. Certainly it could. But few recognize there is an even greater matter of conflict brewing between the US and Russia. It could quickly outpace the already-dangerous Ukraine war.
Consider the following statement about the war:
"This is not about Ukraine at all, but the world order." Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that, referencing the war.
Oxford University professor Peter Frankopan in The Spectator for March 4, 2023 cited that statement by Lavrov. It was made a month after the invasion. Now it has become a point that's been virtually lost in the subsequent mish-mash of conflicting news reports on every side of the still ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Lavrov's "world order" term equates to an issue that many refer to as American hegemony.
To understand where the "world order" issue might take us, let's first look at the already immediate dangers of the Ukraine conflict.
Often we are reminded that Vladimir Putin famously alleged that the demise of the Soviet Union was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century." NBC News reported it back in April 2005.
Now it can be debated whether Putin has initiated a great geopolitical catastrophe of his own by invading Ukraine in February 2022. There is obvious irony in that thought.
History will ultimately judge whether the Ukraine war will grow to be the greatest tragedy of the 21st century. Meanwhile, there is a practical reason to believe that the Ukraine conflict could even take on a much greater proportion than that.
If you take a serious look at the ultimate risk involved, you can see a distinct a possibility that the Ukraine conflict could become the greatest geopolitical catastrophe ever seen. The risk is that high if the war extends into a long war and to a direct nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. A resulting nuclear catastrophe could lead to an insurmountable disruption of world civilization. I'll show how that's a quantifiable risk.
In a game of Russian roulette there is also a risk. There is a finite chance that you could kill yourself. It is improbable though. The odds from one pull of the trigger are against it. But who among us would bet on the improbable and pick up a revolver and take the chance? Why not? After all, the odds of survival are in your favor. But there is something else involved.
The additional factor here is of course one of risk/benefit. If you could somehow avert a worse and certain fate by agreeing to a trigger pull in Russian roulette, the risk might be worth it. The benefit would outweigh the risk. Otherwise it would be a foolish move.
Now we are actually facing a game of Russian roulette in Ukraine. That's not just an off-the-cuff allegation. It's the product of a scientific risk analysis conducted by Dr. Martin Hellman. He is Adjunct Senior Fellow for Nuclear Risk Analysis at the Federation of American Scientists. Hellman's been involved in scientific analysis of this issue going back at least 15 years.
Dr. Hellman now scientifically estimates: "So long as the war in Ukraine drags on, we are playing Russian roulette with the whole world about once a year." Mathematically the odds of catastrophe are about 17 percent.
In addition to Hellman's position with FAS, he is also a Professor Emeritus at Stanford University and winner of the million dollar ACM Turing Award, said to be the Nobel Prize for computing.
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