After weeks of destroying ships said to be carrying drugs from Venezuela, US President Donald Trump posted on social media the capture and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a daring US military operation in Caracas.
US Attorney General Pam Bondi announced Maduro has been indicted in New York on drugs and weapons charges. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Republican senator Maduro will stand trial in the US and that he anticipates no further military action.
According to the Venezuelan constitution, Vice President Delcy Rodr-guez will assume leadership of the country. She mentioned the US attack has cost the lives of officials, military personnel and civilians across the country.
Trump had campaigned on a "America First" platform, and had long ridiculed the past Obama-Biden administration's insistence of "regime change" operations in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen.
In my opinion, Trump may have a two-pronged strategy: China and OPEC.
Firstly, Trump may be seeking to hurt China economically. China, the world's no. 1 oil importer, is the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude, though Venezuelan supply accounts for only around 4% of its total crude imports.
China remained Venezuela's main export destination, taking about 80% of total shipments, or roughly 746,000 bpd. as of December 5, 2025. China has imported 1.72 million bpd of crude from Saudi Arabia, 21.1 percent of its total imports.
Iran ranks as the second largest crude exporter to China in 2025 as a whole, with 1.61 million bpd and 19.6 percent of China's total imports as of November 19, 2025.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia is considered the country with the biggest power in OPEC, serving as its de facto leader. Its influence stems primarily from its massive oil production capacity, large proven reserves, and significant spare capacity, which allows it to function as the traditional swing producer to balance the global market.
However, if the US can control the massive oil reserves in Venezuela, Trump could exert power in OPEC, effectively unseating Saudi Arabia as the power broker. Which could buy Trump leverage over Saudi Arabia's signing of the Abraham Accords with Israel. Possibly, Trump could be the power which sets oil prices in the future.
In mid-December, speculation abounded concerning a possible attack on Venezuela, and the future of Maduro. The US forces had seized a Venezuelan oil tanker off the coast. Experts pointed to the shared interest in Venezuela oil reserves, the world's largest proven reserves, between the US and China.
"Whoever comes to power, I can assure you, the first call will be Trump, but the second will be Xi Jinping," said Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado, a specialist in China-Latin America relations.
The US had been Venezuela's largest customer prior to 2019, when Washington imposed substantial sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA in 2019 -- having earlier blocked its access to US financial markets in 2017. Production and exports tumbled soon afterward.
Chevron revives output
In 2023 production begin to recover, with exports rising to 655,000 bpd in 2024 and reaching 921,000 bpd in November this year. The rebound was due to US oil giant, Chevron of Houston, TX.
Washington eased some restrictions on Venezuela, in the wake of Russia's military operations in Ukraine in 2022. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control granted Chevron special licenses to resume exports from its Venezuelan joint ventures. In October 2025, Chevron received fresh authorization to produce oil there.
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