Since polling is time sensitive and changes day by day, I have decided to upgrade my article by updating polling data.
What catches my attention this Saturday is a poll being promoted by Trump supporter Paul Craig Roberts, in which likely voters say that by 53%, they think Clinton should be prosecuted for her emails. This is a Rasmussen Poll, and it worth pointing out, that Rasmussen, which used to be the featured poll on Fox, has a terrible record of Republican bias in 2008 and 2012. They earned nearly the lowest score possible in the 538 rankings (C) and their error in 2012 gave them a Republican bias of 3.7, which places Rasmussen 21st most inaccurate out of 23 polls. If history is any guide, the Rasmussen poll which PCR is promoting is no better than its failing performance in 2008 and 2012.
On the other hand, the top rated poll, IBB, which was off by only 0.1, with all but NO bias at all, far beating all other polls. IBB has Trump up by one. PCR asks: which polls do you trust? The Rasmussen poll or the polls showing Clinton ahead. I would suggest it's not that simple, and the following explains why.
Rasmussen stands as an example of a poll which cannot be trusted, based on its record of radical Republican bias. On the other hand, IBB is by far the most accurate poll....and it tends to agree with Rasmussen. Whom then can we trust? And how should we react to polls such as the Rasmussen which are used more as propaganda than as objective information, like the highly accurate polls. What if the worst poll and the best agree? How can we sort this out to have a sense of what is happening? And how can we prevent propaganda polls from influencing elections, which is another form of rigging?
My article has only a few simple points:
1. Despite the consensus of the corporate media, Trump is leading in the two least biased polls: the IBD poll (which was the most accurate in the past 3 elections) and the LATimes poll. The Times is hardly a Trump outpost, so it's polling has credibility. Rasmussen, with a right bias, is also showing Trump ahead. But it is the IBB poll that is most troubling,since they have the least bias, historically, of all the polls. According to the best polls (IBB is top rated; LATimes has an A- score for accuracy), Trump is slightly ahead.
2. Trump is to the left of Bernie Sanders on foreign policy, and his proposal to have friendly relations with Russia is probably the single most important difference with Clinton, who called Putin "a new Hitler" and has been promoting rattling sabres at the Russia border thru NATO, which the US controls. Trump is far to the left of Clinton in foreign affairs.
3. Trump's claim that the elections are rigged is correct! The rigging of elections has given us Bush, the Iraq War, trillions in debt, and a Congress that most Americans hate, along with our Presidential candidates, neither of whom reflects the people's choice (which is Sanders). Until elections stopped being rigged, in so many ways (voter impersonation is not one of them), by design (3d parties are eliminated by high standards that practically guarantees they will never reach it, in terms of debates and get little media attention), no other fundamental changes will be possible.
4. The solution, as always, is democracy: making the Constitution a document based on democratic principles (ie equality and consent) and ending the tyranny of Big Money in elections and lobbying.
We can thank Donald Trump for at least being right on these two critical issues, on which most Democrats are far to the right and in a state of denial.
If a woman who calls the elected leader of another nation "a new Hitler" wins, we will be living with the constant threat of WWIII. Calling someone Hitler DEMANDS a response. Perhaps Russia can be provoked into a reaction to the nukes and tanks on its borders...tho Putin is so cool and intelligent, he sees thru all this shadow boxing.
If you wake up November 9th, and Trump is President, don't be shocked: the top rated polling firm puts him ahead!
If you wake up in 2 yrs and the US is on the edge of war With Russia, you may conclude that HRC won.
For all his lies and denials, Trump is right 20% of the time! And when he is right, he is very right. Maybe being right 20% of the time on the major issues is more important than being right 80% of the time on smaller issues????
At any rate, it's a tight race, with Trump ahead according to the poll with the best record of being accurate. It's hard to digest, but there is nothing else to eat except polls by more biased polling firms. And we will not get what we want or need. We will get one of two liars, one with better domestic programs, the other with better foreign programs, neither of whom we can trust. It will not get better until, heeding the words of Trump, we cure our rigged election system. His concept of how it is broken is very flawed, but his basic insight is correct: elections do not represent the will of the people.
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