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I can't help wondering: Did Joe Biden send his secretaries of defense and state to Kyiv recently to show just how totally "into" the war in Ukraine his administration is? So into it, in fact, that it's hard to express (not in weaponry, perhaps, but in words). Still, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin did make it clear enough that Washington's objective in sending ever more weapons Kyiv's way isn't just to help defend the Ukrainians from a nightmarish aggression not anymore. There's a deeper purpose now at work that being, as Austin put it, to ensure that Russia is eternally "weakened" by this war. In other words, the world is increasingly to be involved in a bad take two of the Cold War of the last century. And by the way, when it comes to actual diplomacy or negotiations, not a word was said in Kyiv, even with the secretary of state there.
At a moment when the Biden administration seems to be doubling down on the Ukraine conflict, TomDispatch regular Rajan Menon takes a hard look at just what that war is actually costing our world and, believe me, it's a grim tale you don't see told these days. Sadly, as the fighting goes on (and on and on), while Washington becomes ever more invested in that very ongoingness, the costs to the rest of us on this planet are only mounting.
And it's not just a matter of pushing Vladimir Putin's all-too-nuclearized back up against a wall or heading, as the Russian foreign minister recently put it, for a possible World War III. Keep in mind that focusing so totally on the crisis in Ukraine means again ensuring that the deepest peril to this planet, climate change, could take an eternal backseat to Cold War II.
And mind you, the war isn't working out well domestically either. It's already clear that, in the eyes of many Americans, Joe Biden will never be the "war president" they should rally around. Research suggests that most of us are, at best, "tepid" about his role in the war so far and split on what to make of his actions (as on so much else). And don't count on the war helping the Democrats at the polls in November, not with inflation soaring. An increasingly chaotic planet that seems ever more out of control might put the Trumpists of the Republican Party in the saddle for years to come yet another nightmare of the first order. With that in mind, consider with Rajan Menon just what a disaster the invasion of Ukraine is already proving to be for so many on this wounded planet of ours. Tom
The Economic Consequences of the War
Why the Conflict in Ukraine Is a Disaster for the Poor of This Planet
By Rajan Menon
In 1919, the renowned British economist John Maynard Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace, a book that would prove controversial indeed. In it, he warned that the draconian terms imposed on defeated Germany after what was then known as the Great War which we now call World War I would have ruinous consequences not just for that country but all of Europe. Today, I've adapted his title to explore the economic consequences of the (less than great) war now underway the one in Ukraine, of course not just for those directly involved but for the rest of the world.
Not surprisingly, following Russia's February 24th invasion, coverage has focused mainly on the day-to-day fighting; the destruction of Ukrainian economic assets, ranging from buildings and bridges to factories and whole cities; the plight of both Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced people, or IDPs; and the mounting evidence of atrocities. The war's potential long-term economic effects in and beyond Ukraine haven't attracted nearly as much attention, for understandable reasons. They're less visceral and, by definition, less immediate. Yet the war will take a huge economic toll, not just on Ukraine but on desperately poor people living thousands of miles away. Wealthier countries will experience the ill effects of the war, too, but be better able to cope with them.
Shattered Ukraine
Some expect this war to last years, even decades, though that estimate seems far too bleak. What we do know, however, is that, even two months in, Ukraine's economic losses and the outside assistance that country will need ever to achieve anything resembling what once passed for normal are staggering.
Let's start with Ukraine's refugees and IDPs. Together, the two groups already make up 29% of the country's total population. To put that in perspective, try to imagine 97 million Americans finding themselves in such a predicament in the next two months.
As of late April, 5.4 million Ukrainians had fled the country for Poland and other neighboring lands. Even though many estimates vary between several hundred thousand and a million have started returning, it's unclear whether they will be able to stay (which is why the U.N.'s figures exclude them from its estimate of the total number of refugees). If the war worsens and does indeed last years, a continuing exodus of refugees could result in a total unimaginable today.
That will put even more strain on the countries hosting them, especially Poland, which has already admitted nearly three million fleeing Ukrainians. One estimate of what it costs to provide them with basic needs is $30 billion. And that's for a single year. Moreover, when that projection was made there were a million fewer refugees than there are now. Add to that the 7.7 million Ukrainians who have left their homes but not the country itself. The cost of making all these lives whole again will be staggering.
Once the war ends and those 12.8 million uprooted Ukrainians begin to try to rebuild their lives, many will find that their apartment buildings and homes are no longer standing or not habitable. The hospitals and clinics they depended on, the places they worked, their children's schools, the shops and malls in Kyiv and elsewhere where they bought basic necessities may have been razed or badly damaged, too. The Ukrainian economy is expected to contract by 45% this year alone, hardly surprising considering that half of its businesses aren't operating and, according to the World Bank, its seaborne exports from its now embattled southern coast have effectively ceased. To return even to pre-war levels of production will take at least several years.
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