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I hope you were suitably cheered up when, on a recent trip to Asia, Vice President Kamala Harris assured American troops in Japan that, in response to China's "disturbing behavior" in the East China and South China Seas and its "provocations across the Taiwan Strait," Washington would never look away. After all, as she put it, "peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is an essential feature of a free and open Indo-Pacific." Because of that, as she reassured those troops, "we will continue to fly, sail, and operate, undaunted and unafraid, wherever and whenever international law allows" " including in that very strait! That was exactly what two U.S. Navy guided-missile cruisers did as August ended in order, as White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby put it then, to send a "very clear message, very consistent message" to the People's Republic of China.
Not only that, Washington will also continue to strengthen "unofficial ties" with the Republic of China (that's the island of Taiwan)! And in all of this, Harris was just following in the footsteps of President Joe Biden who had only recently insisted once again that U.S. troops, possibly even those she was addressing, would indeed be sent to defend Taiwan from any attack by mainland China. So much for "strategic ambiguity," once the term for this country's policy in relation to Taiwan and mainland China.
Now, just to put this in context, let me bring up something truly strange: As it happens " who knows why? " the East China and South China Seas were never known as the East U.S. and South U.S. Seas, nor was the Taiwan Strait ever called the Strait of Los Angeles. How truly strange, don't you think? And while I'm at it, let me just ask you a question: How would you feel if Chinese guided-missile cruisers were, in fact, regularly sailing along the west coast of our country? I know one thing for sure: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and the rest of official Washington, not to speak of the top brass in the U.S. military, would go " not to put too weak a descriptor on it " completely bonkers were such a thing to happen and count on this: we would instantly be all too literally up in arms.
Mind you, it's not that I'm in any way in favor of China attacking Taiwan, but neither do I think that, as TomDispatch regular Michael Klare, who has long followed this country's ever developing (and enveloping) policies in the Indo-Pacific region, makes chillingly clear today, this country should be ever more up in arms, so to speak, when it comes to Taiwan and China. Tom
The World's Other Nuclear Flashpoint
Mounting Tensions Over Taiwan
Thanks to Vladimir Putin's recent implicit threat to employ nuclear weapons if the U.S. and its NATO allies continue to arm Ukraine " "This is not a bluff," he insisted on September 21st " the perils in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict once again hit the headlines. And it's entirely possible, as ever more powerful U.S. weapons pour into Ukraine and Russian forces suffer yet more defeats, that the Russian president might indeed believe that the season for threats is ending and only the detonation of a nuclear weapon will convince the Western powers to back off. If so, the war in Ukraine could prove historic in the worst sense imaginable " the first conflict since World War II to lead to nuclear devastation.
But hold on! As it happens, Ukraine isn't the only place on the planet where a nuclear conflagration could erupt in the near future. Sad to say, around the island of Taiwan " where U.S. and Chinese forces are engaging in ever more provocative military maneuvers " there is also an increasing risk that such moves by both sides could lead to nuclear escalation.
While neither American nor Chinese officials have explicitly threatened to use such weaponry, both sides have highlighted possible extreme outcomes there. When Joe Biden last spoke with Xi Jinping by telephone on July 29th, the Chinese president warned him against allowing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit the island (which she nonetheless did, four days later) or offering any further encouragement to "Taiwan independence forces" there. "Those who play with fire will perish by it," he assured the American president, an ambiguous warning to be sure, but one that nevertheless left open the possible use of nuclear weapons.
As if to underscore that point, on September 4th, the day after Pelosi met with senior Taiwanese officials in Taipei, China fired 11 Dongfeng-15 (DF-15) ballistic missiles into the waters around that island. Many Western observers believe that the barrage was meant as a demonstration of Beijing's ability to attack any U.S. naval vessels that might come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese blockade or invasion of the island. And the DF-15, with a range of 600 miles, is believed capable of delivering not only a conventional payload, but also a nuclear one.
In the days that followed, China also sent nuclear-capable H-6 heavy bombers across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, a previously respected informal boundary between China and that island. Worse yet, state-owned media displayed images of Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) hypersonic ballistic missiles, also believed capable of carrying nuclear weapons, being moved into positions off Taiwan.
Washington has not overtly deployed nuclear-capable weaponry in such a brazen fashion near Chinese territory, but it certainly has sent aircraft carriers and guided-missile warships into the area, signaling its ability to launch attacks on the mainland should a war break out. While Pelosi was in Taiwan, for example, the Navy deployed the carrier USS Ronald Reagan with its flotilla of escort vessels in nearby waters. Military officials in both countries are all too aware that should such ships ever attack Chinese territory, those DF-15s and DF-17s would be let loose against them " and, if armed with nuclear warheads, would likely provoke a U.S. nuclear response.
The implicit message on both sides: a nuclear war might be possible. And although " unlike with Putin's comments " the American media hasn't highlighted the way Taiwan might trigger such a conflagration, the potential is all too ominously there.
"One China" and "Strategic Ambiguity"
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