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Yes, a crucial Ukrainian dam is destroyed, the downriver communities flood, and the danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant only grows. It could prove Ukraine's worst ecological disaster since the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown of 1986. And yes, it's that war again, the latest European conflict in a horrific history that extends to hell and back. And what's on the mind of the top figures in the Biden administration and the U.S. military right now? How to end it as quickly as possible before further disaster strikes? Not a chance!
After all, as I wrote so many years ago, the U.S. lives in a" well, in 2023, you would have to say the dregs of a "victory culture" and, in a Washington still filled with relics from the Cold War era (including our president), peace is not exactly at the top of anyone's agenda. In fact, in a recent speech, Secretary of State Antony Blinken essentially chucked the very idea of peace, no less halting the war in Ukraine, however briefly, out the window. "Some countries," he said, "will call for a ceasefire. And on the surface, that sounds sensible -- attractive, even. After all, who doesn't want warring parties to lay down their arms? Who doesn't want the killing to stop? But a ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and enables Putin to consolidate control over the territory he's seized" It would legitimize Russia's land grab. It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim."
And yes, amid the chaos and rising destruction, the Ukrainian "spring" counteroffensive (which only really started last week) is on its way, but whatever gains it may make, one thing is distinctly unlikely: that the Ukrainians will be capable of triumphing in a war with a Russia that, whatever its (many) problems, is simply the larger and more powerful of the two countries. The question then becomes: How -- short of escalating to the nuclear level -- could this disastrous war near the heart of Europe possibly end?
With that question in mind, let TomDispatch regular Alfred McCoy, author of the aptly titled history of the rise and fall of empires To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change, suggest how it might finally conclude. While he's at it, let him also explain how that very ending might mark a new stage in the rise -- and fall -- of imperial powers on this beleaguered planet of ours. Tom
Peace for Ukraine Courtesy of China?
Another Step in Beijing's Rise to Global Power
By Alfred McCoy
All wars do end, usually thanks to a negotiated peace agreement. Consider that a fundamental historical fact, even if it seems to have been forgotten in Brussels, Moscow, and above all, Washington, D.C.
In recent months, among Russian President Vladimir Putin's followers, there has been much talk of a "forever war" in Ukraine dragging on for years, if not decades. "For us," Putin told a group of factory workers recently, "this is not a geopolitical task, but a task of the survival of Russian statehood, creating conditions for the future development of the country and our children."
Visiting Kyiv last February, President Joseph Biden assured Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, "You remind us that freedom is priceless; it's worth fighting for, for as long as it takes. And that's how long we're going to be with you, Mr. President: for as long as it takes." A few weeks later, the European Council affirmed "its resolute condemnation of Russia's actions and unwavering support for Ukraine and its people."
With all the major players already committed to fighting a forever war, how could peace possibly come about? With the U.N. compromised by Russia's seat on the Security Council and the G-7 powers united in condemning "Russia's illegal, unjustifiable, and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine," the most likely dealmaker when it comes to ending this forever war may prove to be President Xi Jinping of China.
In the West, Xi's self-styled role as a peacemaker in Ukraine has been widely mocked. In February, on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, China's call for negotiations as the "only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis" sparked a barbed reply from U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan who claimed the war "could end tomorrow if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine."
When Xi visited Moscow in March, the statement Chinese officials released claiming that he hoped to "play a constructive role in promoting talks" prompted considerable Western criticism. "I don't think China can serve as a fulcrum on which any Ukraine peace process could move," insisted Ryan Hass, a former American diplomat assigned to China. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, pointed out that "China has taken sides" in the conflict by backing Russia and so could hardly become a peacemaker. Even when Xi made a personal call to Zelensky promising to dispatch an envoy to promote negotiations "with all parties," critics dismissed that overture as so much damage control for China's increasingly troubled trade relations with Europe.
The Symbolism of Peace Conferences
Still, think about it for a moment. Who else could bring the key parties to the table and potentially make them honor their signatures on a peace treaty? Putin has, of course, already violated U.N. accords by invading a sovereign state, while rupturing his economic entente with Europe and trashing past agreements with Washington to respect Ukraine's sovereignty. And yet the Russian president relies on China's support, economically and otherwise, which makes Xi the only leader who might be able to bring him to the bargaining table and ensure that he honors any agreement he signs. That sobering reality should raise serious questions about how any future Beijing-inspired peace conference might happen and what it would mean for the current world order.
For more than 200 years, peace conferences have not only resolved conflicts but regularly signaled the arrival at stage center of a new world power. In 1815, amid the whirling waltzes in Vienna's palaces that accompanied negotiations ending the Napoleonic wars, Britain emerged for its century-long reign as the globe's greatest power. Similarly, the 1885 Berlin Conference that carved up the continent of Africa for colonial rule heralded Germany's rise as Britain's first serious rival. The somber deliberations in Versailles's grand Hall of Mirrors that officially ended World War I in 1919 marked America's debut on the world stage. Similarly, the 1945 peace conference at San Francisco that established the U.N. (just as World War II was about to end) affirmed the ascent of U.S. global hegemony.
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