Cross-posted from
The Nation
The Republican Party's 2012 electoral juggernaut -- and, make no
mistake, it is a juggernaut -- has decided to go "all in" on the fight for
retired Congresswoman Gabrielle Gifford's seat from her Democratic
party.
The special election to fill the seat, which takes place Tuesday, has seen massive outside spending
(by GOP groups and by "independent" allies such as Karl Rove and Dick
Armey) on behalf of a Republican who hopes to grab it for his party.
Democrats have fought back aggressively in the closing days because they
know they cannot afford to lose the seat.
How should Americans who don't happen to live in Arizona see this particular contest?
It's best understood in the context of similar elections in
Britain -- where they are referred to as "by-elections." When a by-election
falls shortly before a general election, it is seen as something of a
test run; or, at the very least, an indicator of where particular
regions are trending.
That's what Tuesday's Arizona vote has become, with significance to
the races for president and for control of Congress. And massive outside
spending to emphasize the point.
All sides are taking it seriously, and rightly so. Southern Arizona's
8th district is "swing" territory, with a slight Republican lean but
more than enough independents to tip it Democratic when the party (or a
particular candidate) is running strong.
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So it's a significant testing ground for 2012 politics. And not just Congressional politics.
Southeast Arizona, especially the Tucson area, will be a critical base for President Obama if he hopes to win the state in November.
The Obama team has long entertained a Southwestern strategy
(involving plays for Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona) -- as
something of a fallback if efforts to win southern states such as
Virginia and North Carolina stumble -- in its calculations of how best to
assemble 270 electoral votes in November.
For the Romney camp, any signs of strength into Southwest are a bonus -- perhaps a big bonus.
Those are the presidential plays. There's also the fight for control
of Congress, and Democrats well recognize that getting a majority in the
House requires them to hold marginal seats like the one in Arizona that
Giffords won in 2006.
With the popular incumbent leaving, as she continues a recovery from a
January 2011 shooting, Arizona Democrats have nominated her longtime
aide Ron Barber.
If the Republicans win it -- as they desperately hope to do -- that will be
a boost for their hopes of securing a "trifecta" win in November,
taking the presidency and the US Senate and keeping the US House.
When I was in Arizona recently, I saw Barber in action.
He's an old-school Arizona Democrat, with roots in the district and a
style that suggests he would hit the ground running in Congress.
Barber's gotten some key newspaper endorsements and he has carefully
distanced himself from Obama on some issues, while at the same time
trying to pump up Democratic turnout. Barber says he's running for "the
people's seat," but his supporters all refer to it as "Gabby's seat."
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