Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Both sides have expressed positive reviews of the second round of talks in Rome held on April 19 between the US and Iran concerning Iran's nuclear program, to conclude a new deal. The third round will be held next week.
"I think that Iran has a chance to have a great country and to live happily without death... That's my first option. If there's a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran," said US President Donald Trump.
The time is right for a deal between the US and Iran. Trump has the Iranians right where he wants them. Iran is at its lowest military might and influence in the Middle East. Trump sees an urgency for a deal because the Iranian nuclear program has inched ever closer to the point of being capable of creating a nuclear weapon without inspections and accountability.
Israel has attacked Hamas in Gaza and left it decimated from key leadership and fighters. The weapon stockpiles have dwindled, and the Israeli ground occupation has prevented Iranian-supported weapons from being smuggled through the tunnels running East to West on the Egyptian border.
Israel attacked the Iranian-supported Hezbollah in Lebanon and took out their top level of leaders and fighters. In the ongoing attacks, Israel severely degraded Hezbollah's weapon stockpiles and prevented them from re-stocking by cutting off the porous border's smuggling routes with Syria. Hezbollah is now in a process with the Lebanese government which could end in the disarming of Hezbollah.
Iran had been supporting a militia in Iraq which had aligned with the Iraqi Army in the fight against ISIS in the past. Recently, the militia said they would lay down their arms to prevent further US or Israeli airstrikes in Iraq.
After the December 8 fall of President Assad in Syria, Israel immediately carried out numerous airstrikes that left Syria without any military assets. Airplanes, helicopters, weapons storage, bunkers, barracks, and air defense systems were all destroyed. Syria had been a part of the "Axis of Resistance", but is now left without an army, and under the leadership of President Ahmed Sharaa. Israel has occupied part of Syria after the fall of Assad and the Sharaa administration has demanded Israel leave, as did the UN and others. However, Sharaa has said his administration is not looking to provoke a confrontation with Israel, and many experts predict a normalization agreement between Israel and Syria could be signed as early as summer.
The new government in Damascus has the opposite political ideology compared with Tehran. Iranian military advisors have left Syria along with their diplomatic corps.
The Israeli attacks beginning in October 2023, and continuing to the present, have driven Iran out of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Previously, Iran was a major influence and political presence in the Levant, but that has changed. Iran is now isolated and unable to maintain their former grip on power in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. Israel has effectively used their military might, free American weapons, and the continuing 'Green Light' from Washington to attack and degrade the enemies of the Zionist regime of Netanyahu.
Building trust is a major issue in any negotiation process. The Iranians do not trust the Americans because of their experience with Trump in his first term in office when he withdrew the US in 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed under the Obama administration in 2015.
Europe hailed the 2015 deal as a way to prevent Iran from gaining the materials to make a nuclear bomb while keeping them under a tight schedule of inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of their facilities to observe their progress and stockpiles.
Much of the world was shocked and dismayed when Trump made the rash decision to tear up the deal from the US side. The other signatories to the agreement remained committed to the deal and held Iran accountable for their production of supplies that could be used for nuclear weapons.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had lobbied Trump to pull out of the deal. According to Netanyahu, Iran wants to destroy Israel. The root cause of the intense friction between Iran and Israel is the brutal military occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, and the denial of all human rights of the Palestinian people. Israel and Iran could bury the hatchet if Netanyahu would follow the UN resolution for a two-state solution, which the US and the free world have supported for decades.
Trump came into his second term a different man. This time he is not following orders from Tel Aviv. Trump has a vision to end wars through negotiations, and he has tasked his envoy Steve Witkoff with negotiating a deal with Iran that ensures they will never have a nuclear bomb.
Witkoff brings years of experience in real estate law in New York. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has a PhD in Political Thought from Kent University in the UK. While the Iranian negotiator may have a higher degree, and vastly more diplomatic experience, having been an Ambassador to both Finland and Japan, Witkoff is Manhattan street-savvy and importantly has the trust of Trump.
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