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The U.S./Turkey Deal-Disaster in the Making

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Reprinted from Dispatches From The Edge

From youtube.com/watch?v=p0_bkkYxz1g: US Airstrikes Against ISIS
US Airstrikes Against ISIS
(image by YouTube)
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The recent agreement between Turkey and the U.S. to cooperate against the Islamic Front (IS) in Syria brings to mind the sociologist C. Wright Mills description of those who make American foreign policy as "crackpot realists": realists about advancing their careers, crackpots about the policies they pursue.

The plan will allow the U.S. to use Turkish airbases to bomb the IS in exchange for Washington's support for Ankara re-igniting its 40-year-old war with the Kurds. The U.S. will also buy in to creating a "buffer zone" on Syria's northern border that, according to Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, will allow "Moderate forces like the Free Syrian Army...to take control of areas freed from the ISIL," or IS. One U.S. official describes the agreement as "a game changer."

In reality it will entangle the U.S. more deeply in the Syrian civil war and give cover to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan' gambit to deepen ethnic divisions in Turkey as part of a strategy to bring his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) back into power.

The "plan" will also toss the Kurds, one of Washington's most reliable allies in the fight against the Islamic State, under a bus. "The Americans are not very clever in calculating this sort of thing," Kamran Karadaghi, former chief of staff to Iraqi President and Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, told the Independent's Patrick Cockburn. "Maybe they calculate that with Turkey on their side, they don't need the Kurds."

While Turkey is also bombing the IS, the major focus of its attacks have been the Kurds. On July 23 a few Turkish F-16s bombed a handful of IS targets in Northern Syria. In contrast, 75 Turkish F-16s and F-4Es pounded the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) with 300 smart bombs, striking hundreds of targets.

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Asked about the bombings, U.S. State Department official Brett McGurk said that Washington recognized Turkey's "right to self-defense."

The massive bombing attack on the PKK in Iraq's Qandil Mountains shatters a two-year truce in a four-decade old war that has killed more than 40,000 people. The ostensible reason for re-starting a war with the Kurds was a PKK assassination of two Turkish policemen following an Islamic State bombing that killed 31 young Kurdish activists in the Turkish border town of Suruc July 20. The Kurds have long complained that the Erdogan government has encouraged the Syrian insurgents, including turning a blind eye to the activities of the IS.

The real reason behind ending the truce, however, was not the assassination of the two policemen, but Erdogan's calculated campaign to spin up a new round of ethnic hated and force another election.

First, there are no "moderate" forces in the Syrian civil war. The Free Syrian Army is, at best, a marginal player. The major antagonists of the Assad regime are Islamic extremists, the al-Qaeda associated Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham, and the Islamic State. Indeed, one reason why the Turkish Army is so wary of getting involved in Syria is because it doesn't want to be allied with the groups leading the fighting. A "buffer" zone will allow those extremist groups to take refuge in a zone protected by Turkish air power.

Erdogan is fixated on overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, arguing that a regime change in Damascus will weaken the IS. But many analysts think the exact opposite and cite the Libya experience as an example. If the Assad regime falls, the extremists, not the moderates, will fill the vacuum. A spillover of violence into Jordan and Lebanon is almost guaranteed, just as the Libya debacle has spread unrest throughout Central Africa.

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The "buffer" is also directed at the Kurdish forces that have been so effective in fighting the IS, successfully defending the city of Kobani and liberating several other towns.

Bombing is only effective if it is coordinated with ground forces, and right now the only effective ground forces fighting the IS are the Kurds, the ones we just threw under a bus. Bombing by itself has never worked, as the Saudis are rapidly finding out in Yemen.

As for the Kurds, a little history.

One of Erdogan's major accomplishments as prime minister was a 2012 ceasefire with the PKK and a promise to deliver more autonomy to Turkey's 25 million Kurds. Erdogan saw the ceasefire as a way to bring the Kurds on board in his campaign to change the Turkish constitution and create a centralized and powerful presidency. With this in mind, he successfully ran for President in 2014.

But the promised reforms in governance, education and language rights -- the Kurds speak several dialects, none of them Turkish -- never came through, because the AKP also wanted to attract right-wing nationalist voters who were deeply hostile to anything that smacked of Kurdish autonomy.

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http://dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com
Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy In Focus, "A Think Tank Without Walls, and an independent journalist. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of California, Berkeley. He oversaw the (more...)
 

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