By Jason Sibert
Those who value the rule of international law and the idea of peace certainly don't like what they see with China/United States relations.
Chinese Xi Jinping says he wants the Chinese military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, a scary idea. There's currently a US military buildup in the Pacific intended to deter China from an invasion and avoid a war. However, we must consider all the options when trying to manage our relationship with China.
Taiwan has been an issue with our relationship with the People's Republic of China since the 1970s when we started to build a stronger relationship with the country. The opening arrived because of the Sino-Soviet split in the Cold War. During that period in history, the PRC left the Soviet orbit and entered the US orbit because the country was more afraid of Soviet Russia than the US. The PRC started to change in the late-1970s when a reform government came to power, liberalizing its economy to adapt features of a market economy and liberalizing other parts of its society.
However, the country has not arrived at a Western model, and a war could break out between the US and the PRC over Taiwan, or the Republic of China. The ROC was settled by the nationalist Chinese, led by Chiang Kai-Shek, after the nationalist side of the Chinese civil war lost to the Communists. The PRC always stated that Taiwan is a part of the mainland. Since normalization of relations with China, we've followed a one China policy while saying Taiwan's legal status is undetermined. The US said it's open to peaceful unification but doesn't support formal independence for Taiwan. At the same time, China has said it will use force to prevent the permanent separation of Taiwan from the PRC. For years, this arrangement helped maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, and economic prosperity followed all parties involved.
Things have certainly changed because some now call the Taiwan Strait the most dangerous place on earth. There's a lot of talk amongst politicians in Washington that makes war with the PRC seem inevitable. There's currently a naval buildup in the Pacific that's supposed to deter China from attacking the ROC. Deterrence as a strategy certainly beats war, but it's far from certain that the PRC will back down just because of a US-led military buildup in the region. Then there's a larger question to be asked. How big does the defense buildup have to be before the PRC considers it a provocation and starts a war because of it?
Right now, both sides should concentrate on avoiding war and maintaining the status quo. Let's avoid confrontation and not force the PRC into a corner that will lead to war, and let's also consider what the people of Taiwan want, as they don't want to be swallowed up by the PRC, but they don't want war either. A less confrontational and more diplomatic approach on the part of the US would serve the people of Taiwan better than a slow march toward a war - a war where their neighborhood becomes a battleground for two nuclear-armed superpowers. The shared vital interests of both the US, ROC, and the PRC can bring many benefits to the region. Our next step should be keeping the diplomatic door open to China.
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project
