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The Switzerland Talks: A Pragmatic Turn in U.S.-Iran Relations and the Challenge of Regional Spoilers

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Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.
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The Switzerland Talks: A Pragmatic Turn in U.S.-Iran Relations and the Challenge of Regional Spoilers

History often advances through dramatic events such as wars, revolutions, and military confrontations. Yet some of the most consequential turning points occur quietly, around negotiating tables far from the battlefield. The recent negotiations between the United States and Iran in Switzerland may ultimately prove to be one of those moments. While much attention has focused on the military aspects of the 2026 Iran War, the more important story may be the emergence of a diplomatic process that neither side appeared willing to consider only months earlier.

The talks held at the Burgenstock resort overlooking Lake Lucerne represented the first sustained direct

The Switzerland Talks
The Switzerland Talks
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negotiations between senior American and Iranian officials since the outbreak of the conflict. They occurred within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding signed earlier in the year, which established a sixty-day period for negotiating a more comprehensive settlement. The negotiations were facilitated by Pakistan and Qatar, both of which played important mediating roles throughout the crisis. Reports from multiple sources indicate that the discussions lasted approximately eighteen hours and produced a roadmap for continued technical negotiations. Although many difficult issues remain unresolved, the talks established mechanisms for communication and crisis management that did not exist before.

One of the most interesting aspects of the negotiations was the composition of the delegations. The American side was led by Vice President JD Vance, supported by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The Iranian delegation was led not by the foreign minister alone but by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and one of the most influential political figures in contemporary Iran. This choice was significant. Ghalibaf is often viewed as a pragmatic conservative who possesses credibility both within the security establishment and among more technocratic factions of the political system. His presence signaled that Tehran was treating the negotiations as a strategic undertaking rather than a merely diplomatic exercise.

Ghalibaf role deserves particular attention. Throughout his career, he has developed a reputation as a manager and problem solver rather than as an ideological firebrand. His background as a military commander, police chief, mayor of Tehran, and parliamentary speaker has given him extensive experience navigating competing centers of power. By placing Ghalibaf at the forefront of the negotiations, Iran appeared to be communicating that it was prepared to pursue a practical rather than symbolic process. Whether one agrees with his politics or not, the choice suggested that Tehran sought an agreement capable of surviving domestic political scrutiny.

Vice President JD Vance played an equally important role on the American side. During the talks he repeatedly emphasized that the United States was prepared to pursue what he described as a fundamental transformation in relations with Iran if sufficient guarantees could be achieved regarding regional security and nuclear oversight. His public statements following the negotiations suggested cautious optimism. He described the talks as establishing a strong foundation for a final agreement while acknowledging that major obstacles remained. Unlike many previous episodes of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, the negotiations were not framed exclusively around nuclear issues. They also addressed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, mechanisms for avoiding military incidents, and stabilization efforts in Lebanon.

President Donald Trump occupied a more complicated position. On one hand, the negotiations would not have occurred without his decision to authorize them. The Memorandum of Understanding itself emerged from recognition that continued military escalation carried enormous costs for both sides. On the other hand, Trump's public comments frequently created uncertainty. Reports indicate that some of his statements nearly caused the Iranian delegation to suspend participation altogether. This reflects a recurring feature of Trump's political style. He often combines diplomatic outreach with public threats and rhetorical pressure. Supporters view this approach as strategic leverage. Critics view it as unnecessary volatility. Regardless of one's interpretation, it became clear during the Switzerland talks that successful diplomacy required negotiators to manage not only substantive disagreements but also the political consequences of public messaging.

The immediate benefits for the United States were substantial. First, the talks produced mechanisms intended to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Given that a significant portion of the world's energy supplies transit through this waterway, even modest reductions in risk have major economic implications. Second, the negotiations created a pathway for renewed international nuclear inspections. Third, they reduced the likelihood of direct military confrontation between American and Iranian forces. Fourth, they offered Washington an opportunity to stabilize a region that had become increasingly volatile and expensive to manage. From a purely strategic perspective, diplomacy offered outcomes that military action alone could not achieve.

Iran also secured important benefits. The United States granted sanctions waivers affecting Iranian oil exports, providing much-needed economic breathing room. Discussions regarding access to frozen assets and reconstruction assistance created the possibility of economic recovery after a costly conflict. Equally important, Iran achieved these gains without formally surrendering its core claims regarding sovereignty or national dignity. For a political system that places enormous value on resistance to external pressure, that distinction matters. Iranian leaders can present the negotiations domestically not as capitulation but as pragmatic engagement undertaken from a position of resilience.

No discussion of the negotiations would be complete without considering Israel's position. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long viewed any significant U.S.-Iran rapprochement with skepticism. His strategic outlook has been shaped by the belief that Iran represents a long-term threat that cannot be neutralized through diplomacy alone. Consequently, any agreement that normalizes relations between Washington and Tehran potentially reduces Israel's influence over American Middle East policy. This does not necessarily mean that Israel opposes peace. It does mean that Israeli leaders may evaluate diplomatic success through a different strategic lens than American policymakers.

The days surrounding the Switzerland talks demonstrated how fragile the process remains. Renewed violence in Lebanon and other regional flashpoints repeatedly threatened to derail negotiations. Several planned meetings were delayed or canceled amid escalating military activity. Whether these events were intentional attempts to sabotage diplomacy or simply manifestations of broader regional instability remains a matter of debate. What is clear is that every outbreak of violence strengthened opponents of compromise on all sides.

The broader significance of the Switzerland negotiations lies not in what they immediately achieved but in what they made possible. For the first time since the war began, both sides moved beyond crisis management toward a structured diplomatic process. Communication channels were established. Technical negotiations were initiated. Limited confidence-building measures were implemented. None of these developments guarantee success. Yet they represent a departure from the assumption that military force alone could determine the future relationship between Iran and the United States.

Diplomacy succeeds when political leaders conclude that the costs of continued confrontation exceed the risks of compromise. The Switzerland talks suggest that such a calculation may finally be emerging in both Tehran and Washington. Whether that realization can survive domestic political pressures, regional rivalries, and decades of mutual distrust remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the negotiations have already demonstrated something important: even after war, diplomacy remains possible.

The real question is no longer whether the United States and Iran can talk to one another. The question is whether they can build enough trust to transform a temporary ceasefire into durable peace. The answer to that question will shape not only the future of U.S.-Iran relations but the future of the Middle East itself.

Suggested References

  1. Reuters, "Vance says Iran has agreed to allow nuclear inspectors," June 22, 2026.
  2. Reuters, "14-point draft U.S.-Iran deal sent to Congress," June 17, 2026.
  3. Axios, "U.S. and Iran launch direct negotiations in Switzerland," June 20, 2026.
  4. Axios, "Trump's messy path to peace," June 22, 2026.
  5. Axios, "Iran to allow UN inspectors back in, Vance says," June 22, 2026.
  6. Associated Press, "Vance says talks set good foundation for permanent deal," June 22, 2026.
  7. Al Jazeera, "US, Iran agree on roadmap towards final deal in Switzerland talks," June 22, 2026.
  8. The Guardian, "US-Iran talks laid very good foundation for successful final deal," June 22, 2026.
  9. The Guardian, "US-Iran talks abruptly called off after Israel and Hezbollah trade attacks," June 19, 2026.
  10. Reuters reporting on Strait of Hormuz mechanisms and technical talks, June 22, 2026.
  11. Background on the Islamabad Memorandum and negotiating process.
  12. Background on the 2025-2026 U.S.-Iran negotiations.
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Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D. Social Media Pages: Facebook Page       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram Page

I was born and raised in Tehran, Iran, and came to the United States in 1976 to study psychology. Over time, America became my home, and I later became a U.S. citizen. My professional career has centered on clinical neuropsychology, particularly (more...)
 
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Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.

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The greatest challenge to a politics of permanent confrontation is not military power. It is successful diplomacy.

A missile can be intercepted. An airstrike can be answered. A military threat can be countered. But it is much more difficult to mobilize support for confrontation when negotiations begin producing tangible benefits for ordinary citizens. If sanctions are reduced, trade expands, energy markets stabilize, and living standards improve, public attention naturally shifts from conflict to prosperity. That shift creates political pressures that military strategies alone cannot easily overcome.

The economic dimension of the Switzerland talks may ultimately prove as important as the diplomatic one. Iran faces enormous domestic pressures related to inflation, investment, infrastructure, and employment. The United States also benefits from stability in global energy markets and reduced risk of military escalation in the Persian Gulf. In this sense, the negotiations were not merely about nuclear issues or ceasefire arrangements. They were also about creating conditions under which both societies could redirect resources from conflict toward development.

There is another reason these talks matter. They challenge a widespread assumption that the Middle East is destined to remain trapped in endless cycles of crisis. Political leaders often gain short-term advantages from confrontation, but populations generally benefit more from stability. The Switzerland talks suggest that at least some influential actors have begun to recognize this distinction.

None of this means that success is guaranteed. Decades of distrust cannot be erased through a single round of negotiations. Powerful interests exist on all sides that remain skeptical of compromise. Regional rivalries continue. Domestic political pressures remain intense. A single military incident could still disrupt the process. History is filled with promising diplomatic openings that ultimately collapsed.

Yet it is equally true that every major peace process in modern history began with uncertainty. Diplomatic breakthroughs rarely appear inevitable when they occur. They often emerge precisely because leaders conclude that continuing the previous course has become too costly.

History suggests that leaders who can convert battlefield stalemate into political opportunity often become more influential than those who merely prolong conflict. If Ghalibaf succeeds in helping transform the current ceasefire into a durable political process, he may emerge as one of the most consequential Iranian political figures of his generation. Such an outcome would not only reshape Iran's future but also alter the strategic calculations of every major actor in the Middle East.

The true test of leadership begins after the guns fall silent. Winning a war is difficult. Building a peace that survives is far more difficult. The Switzerland talks may ultimately be remembered as the moment when a region exhausted by conflict began searching for a different path. If that occurs, Ghalibaf's greatest achievement will not be what he did during the war, but what he helped make possible after it ended.

Submitted on Tuesday, Jun 23, 2026 at 2:00:50 AM

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The Man Who Chose Negotiation: Why Ghalibaf May Become the Most Important Political Figure in Post-War Iran

Few political careers in modern Iran have been as unusual as that of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A former Revolutionary Guard commander, police chief, mayor of Tehran, presidential candidate, and parliamentary speaker, has repeatedly reinvented himself while remaining near the center of power. Yet the Switzerland negotiations may prove to be the most consequential chapter of his political life.

Many observers outside Iran still interpret Iranian politics through a simplistic lens of "hardliners" versus "moderates." Such categories often obscure more than they reveal. The real division within many political systems, including Iran's, is frequently between ideological actors and pragmatic actors. The significance of Ghalibaf's role lies less in ideology than in his long-standing reputation as a manager and problem-solver.

The recent war fundamentally altered Iran's strategic environment. Regardless of how one interprets the military outcome, the conflict imposed substantial economic, social, and political costs on all parties involved. In such circumstances, societies often begin searching for leaders who can rebuild rather than merely mobilize. History repeatedly shows that the leaders who emerge after wars are often different from those who rise during them.

This is where Ghalibaf political profile becomes particularly interesting. Unlike many figures whose legitimacy derives primarily from revolutionary credentials or religious authority, his public image has largely been built around administration, infrastructure, management, and institutional effectiveness. Supporters see him as a practical executive. Critics may disagree with his policies, but even many opponents acknowledge his emphasis on implementation rather than rhetoric.

The Switzerland talks appear to reflect precisely this style of politics. Negotiation is not an act of surrender. It is a recognition that military power alone rarely resolves political conflicts. The greatest diplomatic achievements of the modern era-- from Nixon's opening to China to the Camp David Accords and the Good Friday Agreement-- were achieved by leaders willing to engage adversaries while preserving national interests.

Predictably, Ghalibaf now faces criticism from multiple directions. Some will argue that negotiations concede too much. Others will claim they do not go far enough. Such criticism is almost inevitable for any political figure attempting to move from confrontation toward compromise. Yet history often treats negotiators more favorably than their contemporaries do.

Whether Ghalibaf ultimately succeeds remains uncertain. Iran continues to face significant economic challenges, regional tensions, demographic pressures, and institutional constraints. No single politician can resolve such problems alone. Nevertheless, if the Switzerland talks represent the beginning of a broader transition from permanent confrontation to strategic pragmatism, Ghalibaf may find himself occupying a uniquely important place in Iran's political evolution.

The reason is simple. Post-war societies frequently reward those who promise reconstruction rather than resistance, competence rather than symbolism, and practical solutions rather than ideological purity. If that pattern holds true in Iran, the political significance of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may only now be beginning

References

  1. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf profile, Encyclopaedia Britannica
  2. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR): Iran Backgrounders
  3. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Iran Program
  4. Brookings Institution: Iran Studies
  5. Abrahamian, E. A History of Modern Iran (2008).
  6. Axworthy, M. Revolutionary Iran (2013).
  7. Huntington, S. Political Order in Changing Societies (1968).
  8. Fukuyama, F. Political Order and Political Decay (2014).
  9. International Crisis Group: Iran Reports
  10. United Nations Charter, Article 33.
  11. Kissinger, H. Diplomacy (1994).
  12. Camp David Accords (1978) and Good Friday Agreement (1998).

Submitted on Tuesday, Jun 23, 2026 at 3:16:19 AM

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Reply to Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.:   New Content

Perhaps Ghalibaf isn't quite as hardline as "The Butcher of Tehran", but he's a key figure in a murderous regime and has a lot of blood on his hands. This must be disheartening for the Iranians who believed Trump's promise of help. What a betrayal. Do you actually believe that regime has become trustworthy?

Submitted on Tuesday, Jun 23, 2026 at 9:56:01 PM

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No, I do not believe that any political regime suddenly becomes trustworthy, and I certainly do not believe that politicians should be judged by their promises alone. My article was not an argument for trust. It was an argument for recognizing political realities as they evolve.

The memorandum was not signed by one individual. It was accepted by virtually the entire leadership structure of the Islamic Republic, including figures such as Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, Ejei, the military establishment, and other major centers of power. That fact alone suggests that important elements within the system may have concluded that continued confrontation is no longer sustainable.

As someone born and raised in Iran, I am under no illusions about the history of the regime. I have been a critic of it for many years. However, after the death of Khamenei, a new political reality emerged. The question before us is not whether these men have suddenly become democrats. The question is whether they are capable of moving Iran toward a more pragmatic and less confrontational future.

History offers many examples of political systems changing not because their leaders became saints, but because circumstances forced them to adapt. If Ghalibaf and others can deliver a peaceful transition, reduce tensions, stabilize the economy, and allow ordinary Iranians to buy food at reasonable prices and live without fear of war, then that outcome deserves consideration on its own merits.

I also find it interesting that some observers demand absolute moral purity from every Iranian politician while continuing to support leaders elsewhere who face serious allegations of corruption, abuses of power, or criminal conduct. If political legitimacy depends entirely on personal virtue, then the standard should be applied consistently, whether the politician is in Tehran, Washington, or Jerusalem.

Ultimately, my concern is not the reputation of any politician. It is the well-being of the Iranian people. After decades of sanctions, repression, war scares, and economic hardship, I believe most Iranians would prefer a flawed peace to another cycle of violence and death.

Submitted on Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026 at 4:30:41 AM

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Trump's erratic shifts are deeply unsettling. Netanyahu is far more clear-eyed about the threat that Iran presents -- and not just to Israel. Trump's damnable real-estate style of believing in negotiations, apparently oblivious, as Vance obviously is, to the nature of the Islamist regime under any leadership, isn't looking promising to Israel or anyone with memory and an outlook not defined by election cycles.

Submitted on Tuesday, Jun 23, 2026 at 10:15:44 PM

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I disagree.

The central question is not whether Iran presents challenges. The central question is whether Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy has made Israel safer or more isolated.

Over the past several years, Netanyahu has repeatedly framed every regional problem through the lens of military confrontation. Yet the result has not been greater security. Instead, Israel now faces unprecedented international criticism, growing diplomatic isolation, and a level of damage to its global reputation that would have been difficult to imagine only a decade ago.

Perhaps the greatest strategic miscalculation was assuming that Israel could indefinitely maintain unconditional support from its closest ally while disregarding the political and moral concerns of a growing segment of the American public. Support for Israel remains strong among many Americans, but it is no longer the broad bipartisan consensus it once was. Younger Americans, in particular, view the conflict very differently than previous generations. That shift may prove far more consequential than any single military operation.

Even Donald Trump, who has often been one of Israel's strongest supporters, appears increasingly frustrated by endless escalation and the absence of a realistic political endgame. When a leader begins losing support among his own allies, it is often a sign that strategy has become disconnected from reality.

The irony is that Netanyahu set out to weaken Iran and strengthen Israel's position. Instead, he may have accelerated the emergence of more pragmatic forces within Iran while simultaneously weakening Israel's standing abroad. History is full of leaders who achieved tactical victories only to suffer strategic defeats.

My concern is not whether one supports Iran or Israel. My concern is whether policies are judged by their results. A strategy that leaves ordinary Israelis less secure, ordinary Iranians poorer, and the region trapped in perpetual conflict is not a successful strategy, regardless of how forcefully it is defended.

The future of the Middle East will not be decided by who can sustain conflict the longest. It will be decided by who can create a political framework that allows people to live in peace, rebuild their economies, and look beyond war. That is why I pay attention to diplomacy, even when it emerges from imperfect actors.

Submitted on Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026 at 4:39:42 AM

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Reply to Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.:   New Content

I'm surprised that you disregard the nature of the Iranian regime (which I should probably shorten to the IRGC). Imperfect actors? Are you in contact with any non-IRGC Iranians who have positive feelings about the MOU or the current negotiations? Haven't you heard that executions have increased now that the IRGC is emboldened by the sense it has won? Trump and Vance show no sign of understanding the malevolent people they're negotiating with, but Netanyahu certainly does.
Rather than being a warmonger, he is determined to protect Israel from continual attacks and the threat of annihilation. Israel, including Netanyahu, has fruitlessly pursued peace with its regional enemies who have sought its destruction. October 7th delivered the lesson that aggressive defense is necessary for survival. The continued existence of the IRGC means an increasing threat.

Submitted on Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026 at 11:13:21 AM

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Abbas Sadeghian, Ph.D.

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I have no illusions about the nature of the Islamic Republic or the IRGC. I left Iran nearly fifty years ago, have spent much of my life criticizing authoritarianism, and certainly do not celebrate executions, repression, or the absence of political freedoms. If executions have increased, that deserves condemnation regardless of who is responsible.

The real question, however, is whether perpetual conflict has improved the situation. After decades of sanctions, covert operations, assassinations, military confrontations, and now a major war, neither side achieved its stated objectives. Iran remains standing, the IRGC remains standing, and ordinary Iranians have paid the highest price.

As for Netanyahu, many Israelis themselves now question his judgment. His policies have left Israel more isolated internationally than at any time in its history. He has damaged relations with important allies, divided Israeli society, and transformed what was once broad sympathy for Israel into growing skepticism across much of the Western world. Even President Trump, one of Israel's strongest supporters, has repeatedly expressed frustration with Netanyahu's decisions.

The lesson of October 7 should not be that military force alone can solve political problems. The lesson is that neither side can achieve lasting security through force alone. Israel deserves security. Iranians deserve peace and economic stability. Palestinians deserve dignity and self-determination. Endless war has delivered none of these goals.

The purpose of negotiations is not to trust politicians. It is precisely because politicians cannot be trusted that agreements, verification mechanisms, and diplomacy are necessary. The alternative is a cycle of conflict that has already consumed generations of lives on all sides.

Submitted on Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026 at 11:19:10 AM

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Perpetual conflict has definitely not improved the situation, but that's all on the Islamic Republic, which insists on waging war on the world outside their orbit. Netanyahu, like Israeli PMs before him, tried to manage coexistence, but October 7th brought a crushing realization that it would be delusional and suicidal to continue with such restraint.
The explosion in overt antisemitism isn't due to Netanyahu but demonstrates the strength of IRGC infiltration of the West (notably in Canada) and leftist adoption of the twisted notion that Israel is an oppressive occupier of "Palestinian" land. Trump is so wedded to real estate deal making that he seems incapable of recognizing the futility of making a worthy deal with a murderous regime -- one that views honor in a way that is antithetical to the non-Islamic understanding.

Submitted on Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026 at 3:02:48 PM

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This will be my last comment on this thread because I have more important things to do, including writing articles and producing podcasts.

You continue to describe the region as if endless confrontation is the only possible outcome. Yet the facts on the ground today point in a different direction. Despite predictions of catastrophe, negotiations between Iran and the United States are continuing. The Strait of Hormuz remains open. Oil continues to flow. Energy prices have declined from their wartime highs. Lebanon's government is working to strengthen state authority and address the question of Hezbollah's weapons. Regional governments are pursuing diplomacy rather than expanding the conflict.

What exactly is the alternative being proposed? Another war? Another round of sanctions? Another decade of threats and retaliation? We have watched that movie for more than forty years, and it has brought suffering to Israelis, Palestinians, Lebanese, and Iranians alike.

I have no love for the Islamic Republic and have spent years criticizing its policies. But I am equally skeptical of the notion that military pressure alone can solve every political problem. Lasting security is achieved through stable political arrangements, economic development, and diplomacy-- not through perpetual crisis.

You argue that the Islamic Republic is incapable of compromise. Perhaps. But negotiations are taking place nonetheless, and results should be judged by outcomes rather than assumptions. If tensions are declining, trade routes remain open, energy markets are stabilizing, and regional actors are seeking practical solutions, those are developments to be welcomed, not dismissed.

At some point, every conflict reaches a moment when responsible leaders must choose between continuing old battles and building a more stable future. I prefer the latter.

With that, I will leave the discussion here.

Submitted on Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026 at 3:32:49 PM

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You don't seem to believe that endless confrontation is inevitable as long as the IRGC and its affiliates embrace violent jihadism and they are in power. Trump and Vance share that view, but I don't.

Submitted on Thursday, Jun 25, 2026 at 10:39:09 AM

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We simply disagree on that point, and that's perfectly fine.

I've already explained my position, and I don't think repeating the same arguments will be productive. I have other writing projects and research to focus on, so this will be my last comment on the subject.

Thank you for the discussion, and I wish you well.

Submitted on Thursday, Jun 25, 2026 at 2:58:42 PM

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