Most Popular Choices
Share on Facebook 41 Printer Friendly Page More Sharing
OpEdNews Op Eds    H2'ed 2/6/14

Taliban talks: What is Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai really up to?

By       (Page 1 of 2 pages)   3 comments
Message Pepe Escobar
Become a Fan
  (190 fans)

Source: RT


Whatever one's judgment of sartorially immaculate crypto-American puppet Afghan President Hamid Karzai, he's not a fool.

So now the word is out, via his spokesman Aimal Fazi, that Karzai envoys have been negotiating in Dubai with the Afghan Taliban. And Karzai, on top of it, is boldly encouraging Washington to join the party. Otherwise, he won't sign a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- the key plot line in the Hindu Kush's favorite geopolitical soap opera for over a year now.

Let's try to break this mess down succinctly.

On one side we have the Obama administration dying to exit Afghanistan, but with the Pentagon adamant on keeping boots on the ground and at least some well-located pearls in its vast Empire of Bases.

On the other we have a US puppet who needs to think about his future after whatever form the American exit takes; otherwise the Taliban may grill him like a live kebab.

And in the middle, just merrily watching the proceedings, we have the Afghan Taliban, which will inevitably make a killing -- literally and otherwise -- whichever way the Hindu Kush winds blow.

Mullah Omar in da house

This running comedy includes plot twists worthy of the TV show Homeland. The Obama administration even tried to negotiate with the Taliban in Qatar; by June last year, failure was evident. At the time, Karzai angrily denounced it.

Now it's his turn -- complete with his added American enticement. Plus the hugely popular demand that the Obama administration abandon its modus operandi of repeatedly targeting Afghan villages in the drone war -- with loads of "collateral damage."

Two former Taliban fighters carry their weapons during a handover as they join a government peace and reconciliation process at a ceremony in Jalalabad, capital of Nangarhar province on January 11, 2014. (AFP Photo / Noorullah Shirzada)
One may imagine the roars of laughter of Taliban supremo Mullah Omar at his secret refuge, possibly in Quetta -- so secret that the NSA has never intercepted anything in or out of it.

Omar and his mullahs may -- or may not -- hold the pleasure of playing Karzai like a violin, lots of sophisticated Pashtun subterfuge included. Still, any way they play, they can't lose. They know that as much as Karzai badly needs to buy some protection, Mob-style, he may also insert them -- in a totally legit way -- inside the Afghan political scene. What's not to like?

The Obama administration, as usual, is puzzled. The official spin -- playing like a scratched CD -- is about "fighting Al-Qaeda." It's not. Al-Qaeda has been non-existent in Afghanistan for years. The fight is against the Taliban. Now, not only we're sort of kicking ourselves out, but we also need to talk to them?

The point is everybody needs a deal with everybody else. Karzai well knows he needs to cut a deal with the Taliban; otherwise his successor, to be chosen in next April's elections, will be crushed by them.

Karzai also knows that crucial strategic/intelligence sectors in Pakistan support the Afghan Taliban, even as the Obama administration has advertised a current strategic dialog with Pakistan. Any progress with that with drones in and out of Afghanistan continuing to strike the tribal areas in Pakistan is an absolute no-no.

The Obama administration now even faces the possibility of a double defeat; no SOFA in Afghanistan -- because Karzai or his successor won't sign it -- implying no US troops whatsoever staying beyond the end of 2014; and on top of it being forced to talk to the Taliban.

The privileged spectators of this whole mess are regional powers Russia, China, Iran and India. They are also well aware that things will never get better in Islamabad with the Americans still ensconced in their bases in Afghanistan.

Reuters / Andrew Burton
What they certainly don't want -- except Delhi -- is any remaining US/NATO deployment in Afghanistan. Especially because they know the next step would be the Obama administration -- not to mention a possible, future, hawkish Hillary Clinton administration -- deploying the US missile defense system in the Hindu Kush, a cataclysmic move in the New Great Game in Eurasia if there ever was one.

So all's still at play in Afghanistan -- depending on the results of the April elections. The Taliban, as a fighting force, remains powerful, but as an electoral force it won't be going anywhere. Karzai's game implies a big play for some sort of ceremonial role after the supposed American drawdown -- as in politically legitimizing the Taliban. Still the Taliban holds the privilege of choosing either to be led down this road, or do it in its own hardcore way.

Remember that pipeline?

Now compare the process in Afghanistan with the one across the border, where the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) are considering talking with the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (the offer was Sharif's).

Next Page  1  |  2

(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).

Valuable 4   Must Read 2   Well Said 1  
Rate It | View Ratings

Pepe Escobar Social Media Pages: Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia (more...)
 

Go To Commenting
The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Writers Guidelines

 
Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles
Support OpEdNews

OpEdNews depends upon can't survive without your help.

If you value this article and the work of OpEdNews, please either Donate or Purchase a premium membership.

STAY IN THE KNOW
If you've enjoyed this, sign up for our daily or weekly newsletter to get lots of great progressive content.
Daily Weekly     OpEd News Newsletter
Name
Email
   (Opens new browser window)
 

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

You Want War? Russia is Ready for War

Why Putin is driving Washington nuts

All aboard the New Silk Road(s)

Why Qatar wants to invade Syria

It was Putin's missile?

Where is Prince Bandar?

To View Comments or Join the Conversation:

Tell A Friend