Send a Tweet
Most Popular Choices
Share on Facebook 1 Share on Twitter 2 Share on LinkedIn Share on Reddit Tell A Friend Printer Friendly Page Save As Favorite View Favorites
General News

Study: Which Pollsters Most Accurately Predicted Election

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Rob Kall       (Page 1 of 5 pages)     Permalink    (# of views)   5 comments

Related Topic(s): ; ; ; ; ; , Add Tags
Add to My Group(s)

View Ratings | Rate It Headlined to H2 11/8/12

Become a Fan
  (305 fans)
- Advertisement -

Pollsters not only predicted winners and losers. The pollsters themselves WERE winners and losers. A study by Fordham U. political scientist Costas Panagopoulos ranked 28 pollsters based on how well they predicted the actual outcome of the popular vote. 

In an exclusive interview, Costas Panagopoulos, Director, of Fordham's Center for  Electoral Politics and Democracy told that "Polls were pretty close to each other for the most part, were  pretty close to projecting what actually happened on election day."

Fordham's study found that the top pollsters, in terms of accuracy, were Ipsos/Reuters, YouGov, PPP,  Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP and Angus-Reid* 

Panagopoulos's study reports that none of the polls showed partisan biases, stating, "Most (22) polls overestimated Romney support, while six (6) overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but  none of the 28 national pre-election polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.  

- Advertisement -

Markos Moulitsas, founder and head of Dailykos, which used PPP, which was initially ranked first, before the election returns were updated, observed,

"PPP is a robo-pollster that doesn't call cell phones, which was supposedly a cardinal sin--particularly when their numbers weren't looking so hot for Obama post-first debate. But there's a reason we've worked with them the past year--because their track record is the best in the biz.

One last point--YouGov and Ipsos/Reuters were both internet polls. YouGov has now been pretty good two elections in a row. With cell phones becoming a bigger and bigger issue every year, it seems clear that the internet is the future of polling. I'm glad someone is figuring it out.

But let's be clear, you have to go down to number six on the list to get to someone who called cell phones. And Gallup called 50 percent cell phones and they were a laughingstock this cycle."

- Advertisement -

I asked professor Panagopoulos about his take on how his findings found that the top ranking polls did not include mobile phones. He replied,"They were not so far off to claim that we should not use mobile phones," but added, "The top polls were not based on contacting mobile phone users. They were automated or internet based surveys." And he concluded, referring to the robo-pollster and internet-based polls, "Some of these approaches may not be as  problematic as some of the critics believe."

Actually, Gallup, ranked among the lowest in both this 2012 poll AND a similar poll Panagopoulos did after the 2008 election did use mobile phones, at least in this poll. 

I asked "Are there are any methodologies that your findings suggest should be altered?" 

He replied, "I would look at the survey organizations -- I also did a similar study after the 2008 election and there are organizations like Gallup that come at the bottom of the list in both cycle. I think we ought to think about how those polls are being conducted and how they can be improved."

I also asked, "Any ideas on how orgs like Gallup should change their methodologies?" He replied, "Not at this time."

Panagopoulos did change the ranking, later in the day after he originally posted the study, when final counts continued to come, changing the margin of Obama's win from 1.7 to 2.2 percent. That moved PPP, which had been in first place in his first ranking, lower down, with Ipsos Reuters and YouGov ranking at the top. 

- Advertisement -

The study stated, "For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not 

far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 

1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.13 percentage points away 

Next Page  1  |  2  |  3  |  4  |  5


- Advertisement -

View Ratings | Rate It

Rob Kall is an award winning journalist, inventor, software architect, connector and visionary. His work and his writing have been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, ABC, the HuffingtonPost, Success, Discover and other media. He's given talks and workshops to Fortune 500 execs and national medical and psychological organizations, and pioneered first-of-their-kind conferences in Positive Psychology, Brain Science and Story. He hosts some of the world's smartest, most interesting and powerful people on his Bottom Up Radio Show, and founded and publishes one of the top Google- ranked progressive news and opinion sites,

more detailed bio: 

Rob Kall has spent his adult life as an awakener and empowerer-- first in the field of biofeedback, inventing products, developing software and a music recording label, MuPsych, within the company he founded in 1978-- Futurehealth, and founding, organizing and running 3 conferences: Winter Brain, on Neurofeedback and consciousness, Optimal Functioning and Positive Psychology (a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology, first presenting workshops on it in 1985) and Storycon Summit Meeting on the Art Science and Application of Story-- each the first of their kind.  Then, when he found the process of raising people's consciousness and empowering them to take more control of their lives  one person at a time was too slow, he founded which has been the top search result on Google for the terms liberal news and progressive opinion for several years. Rob began his Bottom-up Radio show, broadcast on WNJC 1360 AM to Metro Philly, also available on iTunes, covering the transition of our culture, business and world from predominantly Top-down (hierarchical, centralized, authoritarian, patriarchal, big)  to bottom-up (egalitarian, local, interdependent, grassroots, archetypal feminine and small.) Recent long-term projects include a book, Bottom-up-- The Connection Revolution, debillionairizing the planet and the Psychopathy Defense and Optimization Project. 

Rob Kall Wikipedia (more...)

Share on Google Plus Submit to Twitter Add this Page to Facebook! Share on LinkedIn Pin It! Add this Page to Fark! Submit to Reddit Submit to Stumble Upon Share Author on Social Media   Go To Commenting

The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.

Follow Me on Twitter

Writers Guidelines

Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

A Conspiracy Conspiracy Theory

Debunking Hillary's Specious Winning the Popular Vote Claim

Terrifying Video: "I Don't Need a Warrant, Ma'am, Under Federal Law"

Hillary's Disingenuous Claim That She's Won 2.5 Million More Votes is Bogus. Here's why

Ray McGovern Discusses Brutal Arrest at Secretary Clinton's Internet Freedom Speech

Cindy Sheehan Bugged in Denver