The evolving partnership between China and Russia, highlighted by their announcement of a "no-limits" partnership, has sparked global concern over the formation of a potential axis between these two nations. China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in February 2022 when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing just days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two. This partnership signals a move towards stronger military ties, challenging previous assertions that a military alliance was not the intention. The dangerous and worrying alliance poses significant global stability risks, particularly with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the looming threat over Taiwan. These situations could lead to a multi-front crisis for the United States involving China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran - the current "axis of evil."
This alliance is particularly concerning as it represents a unified front against the US-led world order established 80 years ago, a system that enabled the US to triumph in the Cold War and manage global systems for the past three decades. The focus of the United States on global terrorism post-9/11 led to a reduced emphasis on major power competition, affecting its military and defense industry capabilities. In contrast, the China-Russia alliance is built not on shared values, as seen in US alliances, but rather as a union of authoritarian states opposing Western influence.
The military aspect of this partnership is increasingly evident, with joint military exercises and potential sharing of advanced military technologies, such as hypersonics and submarine propulsion systems. This collaboration could swiftly alter the power balance in the Indo-Pacific region. The exchange of technology and tactical strategies between China and Russia signifies a growing interoperability and deepening military cooperation. This expanding alliance and the possibility of it evolving into a more concrete military pact pose significant strategic challenges, especially for the United States and its allies. The partnership between China and Russia thus marks a pivotal shift in global power dynamics, with far-reaching implications for military balance, geopolitical stability, and the existing world order.
The economic relationship between Russia and China has grown significantly, not only in the energy sector but also through China's increased presence in the Russian market. This growth fills the gap left by Western companies that withdrew due to sanctions. There's also a push for deeper trade and investment ties, as evidenced by discussions between Chinese and Russian ministers. These ties should be seen as a clear effort to push out the West and overtake Western companies in commerce and trade.
This expansion is especially notable in regions like the Russian Far East and North Korea, which are becoming important trade zones. China is looking to import more grain from Russia, as indicated by plans for a new grain corridor. This corridor is part of China's strategy to enhance food security and underscores the economic significance of the northern axis.
However, geopolitical tensions are rising. The war in Ukraine has heightened Western awareness of the potential threat posed by the Sino-Russian alliance. Moreover, recent conflicts in the Middle East, like the Hamas attack on Israel and the ensuing Israeli response, have escalated the situation. These events risk broadening the conflict and could potentially draw the U.S. into a more direct confrontation with Iran.
The U.S., while possessing considerable resources, faces challenges in refocusing its military strategy after decades of counter-insurgency warfare. There is a need for a clear strategy, particularly in light of the potential risks if Russia succeeds in Ukraine or if a larger conflict erupts in the Middle East. Despite these challenges, there is significant public support in the U.S. for robust national security measures. All of this should be seen in the context of a Sino-Russian effort to minimize Western influence and create a new global order that sees China and Russia at the top.
To effectively counter the growing Sino-Russian alliance, the U.S. needs to rally national support and bipartisan efforts. A clear and united approach to this new era of great power competition could lead to a strong response from the U.S. and its allies, potentially altering the strategic landscape.
