Bush can't openly espouse states rights as Reagan crudely, and Romney only
slightly less crudely, did. But he updated the code themes by lambasting
Democrats, wasteful big government, run-away deficit spending on entitlement
programs, and their full-blown assaults on the so-called Obamacare, Medicare,
Medicaid, Social Security programs, and labor unions. The "free stuff" to
blacks dig was simply etching a lurid racial stereotype graphic to it for
conservative voters. And stereotype it is. The majority of the recipients of
these programs have always been white seniors, retirees, women, and children,
and white workers. But these programs have been artfully sold to many Americans
as handouts to lazy, undeserving blacks, Hispanics and minorities.
Bush as Reagan and Romney ripped a page directly from the time tested Southern Strategy playbook of Richard Nixon for GOP presidential candidates. The strategy has always had two hinges. One is to attack the allegedly liberal and bloated and tax-and-spend big government. The second is to firmly lock down the majority popular and electoral vote in the 11 old Confederate and Border states. These states hold more than one-third of the electoral votes needed to bag the White House.
In the 2012 election, President Obama won only a majority of white vote in four states Massachusetts, Iowa, Connecticut and New Hampshire. He could not even get a majority of white voters in Deep Blue, heavily Democratic California, New York and Pennsylvania. Overall, Romney bagged nearly sixty percent of white voters. That translated out to a whopping 20 percent margin over Obama.
The raw racial vote
numbers belie another stark political reality. Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last
Democratic presidential candidate to win more than half the white vote. In
every election since Nixon's win in 1968 whites have voted consistently by
either sizeable or comfortable margins for GOP presidential candidates.
Whites favored Reagan in 1984 by a 64-35 margin. They favored George Bush Sr. in 1988 by a 59-40 margin. Even when Democratic incumbents have won reelection by landslide margins as in Clinton's reelection win in 1996, GOP Presidential contender Bob Dole still edged Clinton out with white voters. He walloped Clinton by a double-digit margin of white conservative protestant voters.
The final presidential tally in 2008 gave ample warning of the potency of the GOP's conservative white constituency. Obama made a major breakthrough by winning a significant percent of votes from white independents and young white voters. Among Southern and Heartland America white male voters, Obama made almost no impact.
Bush's neo-Southern Strategy is anchored in another political reality. He hopes to duplicate what Romney did and that's grab the majority of conservative white voters. In Romney's 2012 GOP primary wins he got two-thirds of those that self-labeled themselves "strongly conservative" or "somewhat conservative. This is no surprise for another reason. Elections are usually won by candidates with a solid and impassioned core of bloc voters. White males, particularly older white males, vote consistently and faithfully. And they vote in a far greater percentage than Hispanics and blacks.
So Bush knowingly played the race card in part to boost his faltering campaign, in greater part because the recent history of presidential election have shown that a GOP candidate's only path to the White House is getting an overwhelming number of white voters in the South, the Heartland States, and the swing states. Bush shrewdly calculated that in his political insult.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He is the author of Torpedoing Hillary: The GOP Plan to Stop a Clinton White House (Amazon ebook). He is a frequent MSNBC contributor. He is an associate editor of New America Media. He is a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on Radio One. He is the host of the weekly Hutchinson Report on KTYM 1460 AM Los Angeles and KPFK 90.7 FM Los Angeles and the Pacifica Network