If opportunity is a congenital twin to chaos, then war is
its handmaiden. Yet the smart strategist side-steps conflict to embrace
favorable contingencies.
Alliances are now loose, multiple and wide-ranging, in stark contrast to the iron curtain era of the Soviets when Hungary's vain attempt to loosen its ties ended in disaster.
India, for example, is seeking some sort of security arrangement with the US to balance the threat it feels from China. At the same time, it has a long history of buying arms from Russia.
Arch- rival Pakistan is a long-time friend of China to the point of being
almost a client state. Not surprisingly, it is very sensitive to
India's closer ties in that direction.
Saudi
Arabia is playing fast and loose with its US ties as it broadens its
associations and begins to woo Iran, which has recently signed an
understanding with China and Russia. As China depends on its oil and
gas from the Gulf, it has an interest in peace there and encouraged the
Saudi initiative.
In
this Middle East maelstrom, the US is conspicuous in its absence. The
US president is supposed to speak softly and carry a big stick except
the current occupant of the office is inaudible and his stick is a
crutch.
So
the US is sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine. But Ukraine is a minor
player. The real prize is Russia itself with its vast resources.
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