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Our discussion started with a key question: Why is it that Secretary of State Antony Blinken seemed at sea when asked why Russia would invade Ukraine? Yesterday, on Morning Joe, Blinken was gently asked: "What would be the upside for Putin by invading Ukraine?" Strangely, it seemed clear that Blinken had not thought that one through. After a minute of circumlocution, he gave up and said we should "ask Putin" (See No Thinkin' Blinken.)
Has President Joe Biden not yet asked Putin? Has U.S. Intelligence "assessed" why in the hell Putin would do such a dumb thing? "Morning Joe" might have suggested to Blinken that he ask his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov the next time they meet [that, reportedly, will be next Wednesday in Europe].
As an aside, I noted that Blinken does not know how to pronounce Foreign Minister Lavrov's last name - and usually mispronounces Ukraine, as well. (In both cases, the accent is on the last syllable.) This is not mere pedantry; a country's' top diplomat really should show enough respect for foreign counterparts to pronounce their names correctly - especially easy ones with only two syllables.
China: the Key to Putin's Assertiveness
Speaking of disrespect, reference was made to the "attitude" that top Chinese diplomats encountered on the part of the Blinken/Sullivan duo in Anchorage last March. This is far more serious than the nicety of taking the time to learn how to pronounce a counterpart's name correctly. The Chinese were insulted at the imperious behavior of Blinken and Sullivan, and refused to be talked down to.
Putin suffered a similar indignity at the hands of Joe Biden himself at their summit in Geneva on June 16, 2021. Biden's words on China showed him to be woefully misinformed about the "world correlation of forces" (to borrow an old Soviet term). He seemed to be stuck in a several decades-old paradigm of Sino-Russian hostility, a reality that President Richard Nixon was able to leverage into key arms control agreements with Moscow during the early 70s.
In my first piece on the strategic backdrop for that June summit, I noted that the triangular relationship had drastically changed in recent decades and that, although the triangle may still be equilateral, it is now essentially a matter of two sides against one - with Washington odd man out.
This is basic
How could any U.S. statesman be unaware? How could it be that foreign policy "experts" could be telling Biden that the US can still try to play Russia and China off against each other amid the radically changed "correlation of forces" today?
Here's the president at his solo, post-summit press conference:
"Without quoting him [Putin] - which I don't think is appropriate - let me ask a rhetorical question: You got a multi-thousand-mile border with China. China is " seeking to be the most powerful economy in the world and the largest and the most powerful military in the world."
Plane-side just before departing Geneva, Biden added:
-- let me choose my words. Russia is in a very, very difficult spot right now. They are being squeezed by China. --
Putin and Xi Give Biden a Tutorial
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