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Right & Left Wing Election Models Agree on Winner

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Michael Collins     Permalink
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Right & Left Wing Election Models

Agree on Winner

Votemaster" 10/21

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Votemaster, TruthIsAll, & Election * Projection
Call it for Obama - Big!

Michael Collins 

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(Wash. DC)  Presidential election polls are frequently in conflict.  Within the same time period (10/17-10/20), the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Obama up 10 points while the American Research Group came in six points lower, plus four for Obama. These pollsters repeat the same methodology over and over, come up with similar results, and continue to disagree.  It confuses the public but provides an endless spin opportunity for advocates on both sides.

Then there are the pure analysts who create more elaborate election models.  These dedicated and intensely meticulous researchers are the "spread sheet wielding" elite of polling analysis and projections.  They pick and aggregate state, national, and local polls, develop mathematical models for analysis, and produce a running assessment of the presidential race available on any given day.

Looking at the leading independent polling analysts is always helpful as a counterweight to the numbing parade of random numbers filtered through the corporate media.  From the very conservative Election * Projection, to the openly libertarian Votemaster, to the unwavering liberal TruthIsAll, they admit their bias yet seek accuracy.

Seeing the top three agree almost precisely just 13 days before the general election is a noteworthy event.  They all predict an Obama victory by a wide margin in the Electoral College and about a 7 point win in the popular vote.

Their track records differed in 2004.  The conservative Election * Projection called it for Bush. While the more accurate and thorough TruthIsAll and Votemaster knew who really won.

Here are the three on electoral votes for 2008.

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There's just a 4 vote spread for both candidates
in the Electoral College

The popular vote matches up conservative versus liberal.

Election * Projection and TruthIsAll have just a one
point difference in their popular vote projections.

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