The French poet and philosopher, Paul Valery, noting
the fragility of civilizations and the possibility that they "can
perish by accident", wrote "the abyss of history is deep enough to hold
us all." Valery had seen the slaughter of the First World War.
It
is a hundred years later and Russia is making loud noises around
Ukraine. That alone throws suspicion on its intentions, for stealth is
often the handmaiden of war. The latest in this Kabuki dance are joint
exercises with Belarus. As in chess, the threat from a move is
sometimes more effective than the move itself as the latter breaks the
tension. Also an all-out war with Russia has the potential to throw us
into Valery's abyss, and Putin is a savvy leader.
We
hope good sense prevails but accidents can happen. Again, the First
World War is an example. It changed the map of Europe for the
Austro-Hungarian Empire disappeared, and the punitive peace set the
stage for the deaths of millions in a second World War.
It is difficult to foresee gains for anyone in a Ukraine war other than some face-saving. Russia can end up with an insurgency in Ukraine, and memories of Afghanistan should make it think twice. Gone also will be its hopes of an economic accord with Europe.
Furthermore, the threatened economic sanctions will undermine the Russian economy. The Chinese will help of course but only up to a point because their ties with the West are crucial to the sustained growth of their economy.
There
are indications now that off-the-ramp talks might pave the way to a
deal. The trouble with formal meetings is that they are laden with
appearances, prestige, and stated expectations. All of which makes
necessary concessions difficult for both sides.
If Ukraine has the latent possibilities of war, Modi's peace in India embeds the triggers for violence. For example, two BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) supporters had been posting photos of Muslim women on YouTube with Islamaphobic and derogatory comments until their channel was removed.
Muslim women were also put up for mock auction. These apps were eventually closed but before that could happen, hundreds had viewed them and the women felt humiliated. Following complaints, police are investigating.
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