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Popular Vote Blowout Predicted by Early October Poll: Obama Wins Popular Vote

By       Message Frank Murphy     Permalink
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Here's a little analysis of a Time Magazine/Abt SRBI Poll
# 2008-4567: America by the Numbers, Oct. 3-6, 2008

*I used the available sampling weights

Obama / Biden        47.9%
McCain / Palin        42.7%
Other / Niether        02.0%
Undecided        07.5%

Undecided Voters

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25.7 lean Obama
16.2 lean McCain
1.4  other
1.4  niether
55.4 still undecided


Let's assume that 25.7 of 7.5% of leaners, vote for Obama...you have:

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.257 * 7.5 = 1.93% (allocated to Obama)

And add the McCain "leaners", you have:

.162 * 7.5 = 1.22% (allocated to Obama)

Thus, you now have:

47.9 + 1.93 =   49.8%  Obama (95% Confidence Interval = 46.6% to 53% of popular vote


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42.7 + 1.22 = 43.9%   McCain


 split the rest of the undecideds by 50%

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Frank Murphy is a doctoral candidate in sociology at a university in New England whose research interests include racism and political sociology.

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