Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
There is no doubt that the events of October 7 fundamentally changed Israel and Palestine. It was the moment that set in motion a transformation across the entire Middle East. Reports are now emerging over whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knew what was going to happen before the attack. According to Israeli media, he received warnings from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates but ignored them. Today, with Israeli elections approaching, the publication of these allegations could potentially mark the beginning of the end of Netanyahu's political career.
Did Netanyahu know what was coming and deliberately intended to use October 7 as a justification to implement a broader strategy against Gaza, Hezbollah, the former Syrian government, and ultimately Iran?
This question becomes particularly significant when examining the developments that followed October 7. Over the years, Israeli intelligence demonstrated an extraordinary ability to penetrate parts of Iran's regional network at political, military, technological, and economic levels. Following October 7, the so-called Iranian axis suffered enormous strategic losses. Gaza was devastated, Hezbollah was severely weakened, the Assad government in Syria subsequently collapsed, and Israel eventually confronted Iran directly.
Was October 7 therefore simply a catastrophic intelligence failure-- or did it become the justification for implementing a much larger regional plan?
There is currently no conclusive public evidence proving that Netanyahu deliberately allowed the October 7 attack to happen. However, the allegations surrounding warnings allegedly delivered to him personally make the question impossible to dismiss without a serious and independent investigation.
The latest controversy centers on a report by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which alleged that UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed personally warned Netanyahu before October 7 that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major operation.
According to the investigation, the warning was based on information originating from Sinwar himself. During secret contacts involving Hamas and Israel in September 2023, Sinwar allegedly told a Palestinian intermediary that he was preparing an extraordinary operation, describing it as an "earthquake" and demanding that his message be conveyed literally.
The information reportedly reached an adviser close to the Emirati president, who sought to verify its seriousness before informing Mohamed bin Zayed.
According to Haaretz, the warning eventually reached Israel's Shin Bet on September 15. Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar allegedly briefed Netanyahu, while a security meeting was held shortly afterward involving senior defense and intelligence officials.
Yet the initial Israeli assessment reportedly underestimated the threat. Officials allegedly considered the possibility that Sinwar was referring to a limited operation rather than a large-scale assault from Gaza.
The report claims that Mohamed bin Zayed, concerned by Israel's apparent lack of response, eventually contacted Netanyahu personally. The alleged conversation lasted approximately 45 minutes and was conducted through an exceptionally secure communication mechanism.
The Emirati president reportedly warned Netanyahu that Sinwar was preparing an operation capable of causing massive bloodshed, destabilizing the region, and threatening the Abraham Accords.
Netanyahu allegedly responded that Israel believed Hamas was preparing an operation in the West Bank rather than Gaza and assured the Emirati president that Israel was prepared for all scenarios.
The most serious allegation is that Netanyahu did not subsequently inform senior security officials-- including the defense establishment and the heads of Israel's principal intelligence agencies-- about the alleged conversation.
Netanyahu denies this.
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