Lebanon, often referred to in the past as the "Paris of the Middle East," is today the "Middle East of the Middle East." The deadly Beirut port mega-blast on August 4, 2020, triggered by haphazardly stored ammonium nitrate, may have destroyed a large portion of Lebanon's capital, but the country was in severe disarray long before the tragedy occurred. United Nations experts and top NGOs have urged the UN Human Rights Council to launch an international investigation after two years of foot-dragging. "This tragedy marked one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in recent memory, yet the world has done nothing to find out why it happened," the UN experts said.
Economic crisis
While the victims injured in the blast, as well as families of the deceased, complain that there is no accountability or justice, the nation's citizens continue to suffer from a dysfunctional government and a collapsed economy.
Human Rights Watch noted that in 2021 "more than 80 percent of the country's residents did not have access to basic rights, including health, education, and an adequate standard of living, such as adequate housing and electricity, according to the United Nations."
As Human Rights Watch noted then, "Between June 2019 and June 2021, the inflation rate was 281 percent. Food prices alone increased by 550 percent between August 2020 and August 2021. Meanwhile, the national currency lost 90 percent of its pre-crisis value, and banks continue to impose arbitrary restrictions on cash withdrawals."
Since then, the situation has only gotten worse.
According to the World Bank, Lebanon "is almost three years into an economic and financial crisis that is among the worst the world has seen." The World Bank ranked it "among the top three most severe global financial crises since the mid-nineteenth century." The situation in Lebanon is so dire that citizens have held up banks to try and retrieve their money, which has seemingly evaporated. Experts blame the country's economic downfall on negligent governance and widespread corruption. According to The International Crisis Group, "the elites who run the system are also implicated in ever-deepening state dysfunction and economic recession."
Thursday's signing of the U.S.-brokered maritime demarcation deal with Israel, which involves receiving additional control of approximately 1,450 square kilometers off its coast in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as the Karish and Qana gas fields underneath, gives Lebanon some hope for economic improvement in the future.
But any potential revenues from gas will still not be enough to cover the country's current financial deficits, the banking sector losses, and the Central Bank's depleted reserves, as Hanin Ghaddar at War on the Rocks notes. "The only way out of this crisis is through substantial financial, economic, and legislative reforms that would protect energy revenues, instead of letting them be squandered through corruption," he wrote.
Unless Lebanon's leaders take action on long-delayed reforms, the country will be unable to receive badly-needed aid from the International Monetary Fund - crucial assistance that Lebanon cannot afford to pass up.
Political crisis
Lebanon is currently being led by a caretaker administration led by Michel Aoun, who officially steps down in just a few days on November 1. In Lebanon's 128-seat parliament, presidential hopefuls must secure 86 votes - a goal no candidate has currently achieved. This means Lebanon will remain with a power vacuum and since no bloc holds a majority, they will all need to negotiate and agree on a candidate. For Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, former minister and parliamentarian Suleiman Frangieh is a favorite though they have not officially endorsed him. Other politicians are promoting efforts to agree on a new cabinet led by Sunni Muslim Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
Lebanon today is hindered by a corrupt political elite and various factions in parliament have different interests. Hezbollah and its allies have close ties to Shi'ite-led Iran and Syria, while the Christian and Sunni communities look to the West and Sunni-led Gulf Arab States. Should the country fail to elect a new leader next week, Lebanon could be looking at a lasting political crisis that could drag on for weeks, months or even years.
Hezbollah's presence in the country, coupled with a dysfunctional and penniless Lebanese Army and a toothless UN force, adds to Lebanon's instability. With its massive stockpile of rockets - over 100,000 according to most estimates - Hezbollah poses a threat not only to Israel in the south, but to Lebanon's own civilian population. The fact that it is an Iranian proxy with massive political power means it is Hezbollah that largely controls Lebanese politics.
Ideally, Lebanon needs to rid itself of Hezbollah, force out the corrupt ruling elite, institute necessary reforms, and start rebuilding its economy. If it could achieve this, Lebanon could return to its former status as the Paris of the Middle East.
