The outcome is doubtful at best. Recently,
President Obama declared, "A war is ending," a curious choice of words. Imagine
that, after eight years and nine months, POTUS simply says the war is over
because all American combat troops will be home for Christmas.
This is a very cheery thought suitable for the
Christmas season. However, as a modest war historian I have some very serious
doubts. No one has surrendered. There is no truce. Sunni insurgents, Al-Qa'ida
in Iraq (AQI), the Shiite militias, and the Kurdish militants are still there
and they have given no indication of giving up the fight. The jealousies
remain. The thirst for power amongst the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds remains
while AQI still wants to wreak havoc in this forlorn land.
Nearly nine years after the U.S. illegally invaded
Iraq this war may finally be coming to end. As the reader will soon see
emphasis is on "may." At what cost this war? What was gained? What was lost?
Those questions will be answered in conjunction with the dubious future of
Iraq.
The U.S. death toll was over 4,500 soldiers while
over 32,000 were wounded. The short-term cost of the war is nearly $1 trillion
and counting. The long-term cost of the war will be double or triple that and
this is assuming Obama's optimism prevails and Iran behaves.
Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor
reports, "The human toll on the Iraqi side is virtually unquantifiable [sic]
and unimaginable, with estimates of the number of people who perished in the
years of insurgency and sectarian civil war reaching into the hundreds of
thousands."
So, what Christmas cheer is in store for Americans
as the remaining troops packed their toothbrushes, shaving kits, and uniforms
in duffel bags and left Iraq to neighboring Kuwait on Dec. 18th? Put
a different way, what is the current condition of Iraq? The answers to that
question cast grave doubts that this war is at endgame or will be for the
foreseeable future. This is said with all due respect to President Obama and
his eternal optimism.
Contrary to Obama's optimism and the assessment of
generals -- the top US commander in Iraq, Gen.
Lloyd Austin, says he expects "turbulence" in the last days of US
forces being here, but adds that Iraqis now "approach the ability to
manage themselves" -- the situation in Iraq is not good.
Yas Khudair al-Khafaji lost his daughter, Rousel,
age 11, wife and nephew to an attack carried out by Iraqi insurgents in Nov.
2005. Khafaji blames his searing loss on the United
States as an occupying force. Protecting Iraqis, he says, was the
responsibility of American troops, and they didn't do it. He also blames Iraqi
politicians who, he says, "fight for power and forget the Iraqi
people," according to Peterson. The CSM reporter adds, "A complicated mix
of similar complaints echoes across Iraq nearly
nine years after one of the most defining and destructive wars in the modern
history of the Middle East. While some fault America for starting the war,
others blame "terrorists' for Iraq's years of chaos, or meddling nations such
as Iran
and Saudi
Arabia. Still others absolve US forces and accuse their own leaders of
fueling intra-Iraq violence."
Also contrary to the optimism of U.S. officials
Iraq is not Disneyland. In November of this year the enemy carried out more
than 100 targeted killings in Baghdad Province alone.
That is only the beginning of the deplorable
conditions Iraqis face today as a direct consequence of the American invasion.
The United
Nations estimates that 23 percent of the population lives below the poverty
line on less than $2.20 a day. Children are "chronically malnourished" and
school attendance is down. Baghdad is currently in a two-year old political
deadlock. Maliki's cabinet is still incomplete, with key portfolios, such as
defense and national security, remaining in his hands. Worse is the pessimism
Iraqis feel toward the Maliki government as they are concerned over whether
Iraq's ever-bickering politicians can lead the nation to a better post-US
future or not. An influential Iraqi stated, "People go to parliament for
their own profit and their power, not to do their best for the Iraqi
nation." Transparency
International, a Germany-based watchdog group, ranks Iraq 175 out of 182 in a
global corruption index, ahead of such countries as Afghanistan,
Myanmar
(Burma), and Somalia.
Then there are the more tangible concerns as Iraqis
still struggle with perennial problems such as a lack of electricity. While
power production has risen from 8 to 18 hours per household per day in the past
four years, US auditors report that electricity shortages still affect 80
percent of the population and that the Ministry of Electricity "has been
unable to close the supply-demand gap." Peterson reports, "Since 2003,
this problem has particularly galled Iraqis, who regularly ask why the world's
sole superpower, which has spent some $62 billion on reconstruction, couldn't
overcome chronic security issues and provide the basic electricity they need.
An upbeat 2004 US government reconstruction overview, called "Our Commitment to
Iraq,' stated that restoring electricity was "critical to the establishment of
all facets of Iraqi society.'" In addition potable water, a matter we
Westerners take for granted, is in short supply.
President Obama recently proclaimed, that US troops
would depart Iraq "with their heads held high, proud of their
success." Yet, as Peterson reports, "The colorful advertisements are now a
regular feature in Iraqi newspapers. In half-page spreads, often on the front
page, they depict Shiite religious or Iraqi nationalist symbols, superimposed
with slogans that decree: "The sun of freedom burns the darkness of the
occupation' or "The government and people are one hand to kick out the occupiers.'
The date of the final US departure blares in bold print.
"So much
for a brass band exit for American troops."
At least Obama didn't declare victory.
The troops are not fools. They know better, mission failure.
Now we come to Iran. A decidedly bad situation just
got a whole lot worse. It is assumed that the reader is knowledgeable of the
controversy over whether or not Iran is developing nuclear weapons. That is
just the beginning, the tip of the iceberg in a manner of speaking. In point of
fact the nuclear weapons issue is, at present, relatively unimportant according
to many observers. This is due to the unalterable fact that there is virtually
no proof that Iran is doing any such thing. The most recent IAEA report offers
substance to that conclusion because it offered no proof of Iran's deviousness
and did not say Iran was making a nuke; only that Iran is suspected of
doing so. There are far more concrete matters that concern Washington vis-Ã -vis
Iraq.
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