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Turkey's President Recep Tayip Erdogan, freshly reelected leader of his country, has dominated Turkish politics for two decades and will now extend his rule in his third term for another five years. His staunch supporters are pleased with the results of the election, while his opponents would have preferred to see him hand power over to his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Erdogan's re-election takes place amid a spiraling economy, rampant inflation and in the wake of a horrific earthquake clouded by accusations his government was slow to respond.
Opinions on Erdogan leading Turkey vary significantly among international affairs experts. These differing views stem from the complex and multifaceted nature of Erdo?an's leadership and its impact on Turkey's domestic politics, regional dynamics, and international relations.
Supporters of Erdoan argue that he has brought stability, economic growth, and infrastructure development to Turkey during his tenure. They credit him with increasing the country's global influence and portraying Turkey as a strong and independent player in international affairs. Erdo?an's assertive foreign policy, which includes a focus on regional issues such as Syria and Libya, is viewed by his supporters as a means of protecting Turkish national interests and enhancing Turkey's role as a regional power.
From a regional perspective, Erdo?an's leadership has both supporters and detractors. Some see him as a leader who has pursued an independent foreign policy and challenged traditional power structures, particularly in the Middle East. Erdo?an's emphasis on asserting Turkey's influence in the region and championing causes like the Palestinian cause has garnered support from those who view him as a champion for Muslim interests.
However, Erdogan's regional interventions, particularly in Syria and Libya, have drawn criticism from those who perceive them as destabilizing and driven by Turkey's own narrow interests. His policy choices, such as supporting certain rebel groups or engaging in disputes with neighboring countries like Greece, have created tensions and strained Turkey's relationships with some regional actors.
Internationally, opinions on Erdogan's leadership are also divided. Some observers see him as a pragmatic leader capable of navigating Turkey through challenging regional dynamics and maintaining a delicate balance between different global powers. They highlight Turkey's strategic importance as a NATO member and a bridge between Europe and the Middle East, and argue that Erdo?an's leadership has contributed to Turkey's growing prominence on the global stage.
On the other hand, critics express concerns about Erdogan's policies and actions, including his perceived authoritarianism, human rights record, and strained relations with Western allies. "Erdogan has spent his two decades at the helm consolidating his power - cracking down on dissent, intimidating and jailing opposition politicians and journalists and ensuring the Turkish media is mostly state-controlled and compliant," according to Sky News. Critics also worry about the impact of Erdogan's leadership on Turkey's democratic institutions, its relationship with the European Union, and its reliability as a NATO ally.
Three Atlantic Council experts offer their opinions of Erdogan's victory and what we can expect moving forward. Defne Arslan, senior director of the Atlantic Council IN TURKEY and Turkey programs, former chief Turkey economist and senior energy policy adviser in the US embassy in Ankara, says Erdo?an winning about 52 percent of the vote against challenger K?l?çdaro?lu, combined with the parties supporting him having secured a majority in parliament, means Turkey will be entering another period of "centralized decision making" but also one of "political stability."
Yevgeniya Gaber, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council says that Turkey's "ambivalent stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trading and developing economic cooperation with the former while providing support for the self-defense of the latter, will likely remain unchanged." But secure in his power, "Erdogan might play hard this time," she adds, by asking Russia for more in negotiations over grain exports from Ukraine and even pushing both sides for a ceasefire.
And according to Rich Outzen, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, Turkey's foreign policy will likely continue with its strategic semi-independence and its balancing and hedging among great powers. Yet within NATO, "the prospects for Swedish accession are looking up," he adds, especially with Sweden's new counter-terror legislation taking full effect next month.
Opinions on Erdogan's next five years of leadership in Turkey vary widely among international affairs experts. Erdogan will need to prove to supporters and critics alike that he can bring stability, economic progress, and a reasonable foreign policy. At the same time, he will need to allay fears and concerns about authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, and contentious regional interventions. Erdo?an's continued leadership has important implications for Turkey's domestic and international standing and he would do well to guide Turkey along the right path.
