Russia's military said on Wednesday that it had agreed with Turkey to open two crossing points in the Idlib de-escalation zone in Syria and one near Aleppo. This could be a precursor to opening humanitarian corridors to allow civilians and aid organizations to leave ahead of heavy battles.
By taking control of Jabal Al-Zawiya, Russian and Syrian forces could surround all the terrorist positions in Idlib. Russia would achieve its immediate goals in Idlib and continue to pressure Turkey. The civilian population in the hilly areas has left well ahead of recent escalations and this prevents a mass exodus of refugees crossing into Turkey.
A risk remains of a Russian-Syrian clash with Turkish forces when the major military operation begins.
On October 27, Turkey sent hundreds of more troops into northern Syria in preparation for a long-suspended offensive against American-backed Kurdish forces after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled he was planning a new campaign after many attacks by Kurdish YPG forces.
Turkey's parliament on Tuesday ratified a motion extending authorization to launch cross-border anti-terrorist operations in northern Iraq and Syria for two more years. Both Turkey and the US are illegally occupying Syria with military forces.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian Al Qaeda affiliate, is consolidating its control over Idlib, and its leader is Abu Mohamed al-Jolani.
HTS fought with the terrorists of Jund al-Sham, who are led by Muslim al-Shishani, after which he and his 70 militants agreed on a ceasefire with HTS. However, al-Shishani's decision did not stop the bloodshed and fighting in the Jabal al-Turkman area in the north of Latakia continues. Intense battles happened between HTS and Jund Allah, a group of Azerbaijani terrorists led by Abu Fatima al-Turki.
HTS, classified as international terrorists, had already fought Ikhwat al-Manhaj, another terrorist group, in an attempt to solely dominate areas of the northwest of Syria.
All of these groups protect wanted persons for criminal cases, rapists, and thieves who steal from the civilians of the area.
Last Sunday evening, HTS sent five military columns, armed with heavy weapons and medium machine guns, to Jabal al-Turkman in the countryside of Lattakia, and to the vicinity of the city of Jisr al-Shughur, west of Idlib province, to fight other terrorist groups to establish the domination of the area.
Jolani tried re-branding HTS to transition from a wanted terrorist to a western-supported political leader in Idlib. In July, he said he was seeking a new relationship with the west and gave several interviews with western journalists that supported later papers and policy briefings advising Western governments to reverse their designation (HTS) as a terrorist organization, and his terrorist label bestowed by the US in 2013.
Jolani and HTS stand accused of human-rights violations, including indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas, torture, and arbitrary arrests of civilians.
In 2017, Jolani said in an interview with Al Jazeera that the only way a minority group in Syria could be spared slaughter would be by renouncing their religion.
HTS is protected by Turkey, while Russia and Syria target them under the rules of engagement calling for the elimination of terrorist groups in Syria. HTS has dreams of emerging from the battlefield as a political party able to sit at the negotiating table in the final political solution for Syria called for by the US and UN.
Russia continues to insist on drawing a line between terrorists and moderate opposition groups, and the safety of the M4 highway.
The 2020 Moscow agreement, which is an annex to the Sochi Agreement of 2018, gives Russia the option of targeting terrorists in Idlib. The Russia-Turkish agreement stipulates that the armed-opposition groups maintain a six-kilometer distance from both sides of the highway. Turkey has prevented implementation of the agreement they signed.
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