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How the EU elections will affect farmers

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Mark Lansvin
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Hundreds of millions of Europeans just voted to select 720 Members of the European Parliament, and rising support for the far right may drastically change Europe.

The results determine which 720 Members of the European Parliament get to deliberate on European Union (EU) legislation over the next five years.

The elections are likely to significantly impact the ongoing protests by farmers against the EU's environmental policies. The outcome of the elections will determine the composition of the European Parliament, which in turn influences the direction of EU policies.

With around 373 million voters from across 27 EU member states - which for the first time includes some 16 and 17-year-olds -- it's the world's largest multi-state democratic exercise.

A first estimate of election results produced by the European Parliament suggests the Green and liberal Renew parties each losing around 20 MEPs each, potentially endangering the pro-European majority needed to back top officials and support EU laws.

In Germany, the Christian-Democrat CDU and CSU party is projected to get just about 30% of the vote, similar to 29% in 2019, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany in second place with 16.5%, up from 11% in 2019. The Social-Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz are following with 14%, and the Greens with 12%.

In countries such as the Netherlands, voting took place on Thursday -- and its exit poll suggests Geert Wilders' PVV party will scoop seven seats -- confirming a swing towards Eurosceptic right-wing parties.

It takes place after a turbulent five years dominated by the Covid-19 pandemic and full-scale invasion of Ukraine -- not to mention a soaring cost of living that came to dominate voter concerns.

They also predict a weakening of the pro-European establishment, with voters turning against the likes of Macron and the German Green party.

If parties that support stricter environmental regulations gain more seats, farmers may face increased pressure to comply with these regulations, potentially escalating protests. Conversely, if parties that advocate for more lenient environmental policies or support for agricultural interests perform well, it might lead to a relaxation of certain measures and possibly a reduction in protests.

The election results could also affect the level of support and funding available for farmers to transition to more sustainable practices, which might either alleviate or intensify their concerns.

Farmers drove hundreds of tractors into Brussels last week to protest against the EUss environmental policies, but the action was shunned by mainstream farming groups who said it did not reflect their members' concerns.

A few days before the European Parliament election on June 6-9, farmers from the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and Germany travelled to Brussels to protest against EU green policies that organizers said undermine the competitiveness of European farmers.

But, for all the talk of this being the culmination of a pan-European revolution to rid the continent of an out-of-touch political establishment, turnout was weak and the field in front of the stage only sparsely populated with groups brandishing flags from Flanders, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Poland.

Among the organizers were the notorious Dutch Farmers Defence Force, whose top members have compared the treatment of farmers to the Holocaust; Germany's second-largest farmers' union, LSV, whose spokesperson has been criticized for being too close to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD); and a quasi-think tank from Poland founded by a fur-farming magnate.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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