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How the Democrats can win in November

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Mark Lansvin
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As America trudges forlornly toward yet another presidential election, the two remaining candidates, US President Joe Biden and his predecessor, former US President Donald Trump, have nothing but the polls to rely on for a glimpse into how they are perceived among the public.

Biden is lucky enough to have a wealth of successes in his pocket, but he is troubled by the bane of all presidential candidates: national polls.

What is troubling many Democrats is that Trump led Biden in 16 of the 21 national horse-race polls conducted in late 2023. Since then, the numbers have changed and today Trump leads at 46.1 to Biden's 44.9.

Over the course of his presidency, Biden's approval rating has steadily decayed, from a position in the mid-fifties during the first six months of his presidency to the high thirties right now.

Persistent inflation and the war in Gaza are damaging Biden and the Republicans know this. Biden needs inflation and gas prices to drop, a resolution to the Gaza nightmare, and recognition for eradicating thousands of student loan debts.

The fact is that more than 14 million jobs have been created since 2021, and unemployment is at a near-50-year low of 3.7 percent. The inflation rate has been cut in half, and economic growth is robust.

But this won't be enough to bank on and team Biden knows this.

Luckily, Biden has an ace up his sleeve and his name is Trump.

Trump's greatest downfall could be, well, Trump himself. The man has cudgeled himself in ways that even his worst enemies could not.

Suffering pitfall after pitfall, court case after court case, Trump's veneer is slowly being chipped away and he may be shedding supporters by the thousands.

It is true that Trump has a presence and a way with words. His public appearances are always coupled with fawning fans and diehard activists who revere Trump as God Himself.

Of course, Trump never had Democrats fooled with his volatile temperament, antics, proclamations, tweets, perceived notions, and falsehoods. Everything the man says must be fact-checked.

There's the 2017 debacle in Charlottesville, Trump's Covid-19 bleach solution, and of course the January 6 insurrection.

This is where it becomes important to understand how Biden can beat Trump and win in November. The secret is not to focus on Biden's reelection, but rather on Trump's defeat.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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