This is the way the "Global War on Terror" (GWOT) ends, over and over again: not with a bang, but a whimper.
Two Hellfire R9-X missiles launched from a MQ9 Reaper drone on the balcony of a house in Kabul. The target was Ayman Al-Zawahiri with a $25 million bounty on his head. The once invisible leader of 'historic' Al-Qaeda since 2011, is finally terminated.
All of us who spent years of our lives, especially throughout the 2000s, writing about and tracking Al-Zawahiri know how US 'intel' played every trick in the book - and outside the book - to find him. Well, he never exposed himself on the balcony of a house, much less in Kabul.
Another disposable asset
Why now? Simple. Not useful anymore - and way past his expiration date. His fate was sealed as a tawdry foreign policy 'victory' - the remixed Obama 'Osama bin Laden moment' that won't even register across most of the Global South. After all, a perception reigns that George W. Bush's GWOT has long metastasized into the "rules-based," actually "economic sanctions-based" international order.
Cue to 48 hours later, when hundreds of thousands across the west were glued to the screen of flighradar24.com (until the website was hacked), tracking "SPAR19" - the US Air Force jet carrying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - as it slowly crossed Kalimantan from east to west, the Celebes Sea, went northward parallel to the eastern Philippines, and then made a sharp swing westwards towards Taiwan, in a spectacular waste of jet fuel to evade the South China Sea.
No "Pearl Harbor moment"
Now compare it with hundreds of millions of Chinese who are not on Twitter but on Weibo, and a leadership in Beijing that is impervious to western-manufactured pre-war, post-modern hysteria.
Anyone who understands Chinese culture knew there would never be a "missile on a Kabul balcony" moment over Taiwanese airspace. There would never be a replay of the perennial neocon wet dream: a "Pearl Harbor moment." That's simply not the Chinese way.
The day after, as the narcissist Speaker, so proud of accomplishing her stunt, was awarded the Order of Auspicious Clouds for her promotion of bilateral US-Taiwan relations, the Chinese Foreign Minister issued a sobering comment: the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is a historical inevitability.
That's how you focus, strategically, in the long game.
What happens next had already been telegraphed, somewhat hidden in a Global Times report. Here are the two key points:
Point 1: "China will see it as a provocative action permitted by the Biden administration rather than a personal decision made by Pelosi."
That's exactly what President Xi Jinping had personally told the teleprompt-reading White House tenant during a tense phone call last week. And that concerns the ultimate red line.
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