Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the
The 1973 film "Executive Action" depicted a conspiracy to
assassinate JFK. It was based on a book by
At the end of the film, it was revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination. as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION. Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin.
There has been much controversy about the actuary's calculation. Apparently, no one at the Sunday Times even remembers the actuary's name. And even more strange, the Times editor did not provide the 1977 House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) the actuary's calculation assumptions or methodology. The editor claimed that the problem was not clearly defined and therefore the calculation of the odds was suspect. This analysis indicates that the calculation was essentially correct - and that the editor's response to HSCA was misleading and incomplete.
In fact, there were more than 18 suspicious deaths in the three years following the assassination. The actuary did not include Oswald and Ruby - and at least 20 others. The JFK witness spreadsheet database shows there were at least forty (40) suspicious deaths in the three years; at least 33 were unnatural (homicide, accident, suicide, unknown). The probability of 33 unnatural deaths is lower than 1 in 100 TRILLION TRILLION!
The probability of at least 70 unnatural deaths in the 14 years following the assassination is 1 in 700 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION (1.4E-33). . But there were at least 100 unnatural and suspicious deaths, so the probability is even lower. Since the probability of at least 70 deaths is infinitesimal, why bother to look any further?
Perhaps the problem is better illustrated if we ask: How many unnatural deaths are required in the 14 year period (assuming 1400 material witnesses) to obtain a probability of less than 1% (ONE in ONE HUNDRED)? This would meet the definition of beyond a reasonable doubt. The answer is 18. How many would return a probability of ONE in ONE THOUSAND? The answer is 22. As the number of deaths increase, the probability rapidly approaches ZERO.