Election 2008 - Predictions and What to Expect Tuesday Night

What we sometimes forget as we head towards another election night is that the polls don't all close at the same time. The difference even in the same time zone can be stark. There are six states on the East coast that have polls that close at 7pm and there are some that close at 8pm and some that close at 9pm. This can cause an unusual ebb and flow to the election night race and coverage. A candidate that does well in several of the states that close at 7pm can appear to be ahead.

We have a race where Barack Obama is clearly ahead and increasing his lead in the last few days of national polling and where we have tightening polls in some battleground states. Making this more complicated this year is that some 32 states allow early voting including some of the states whose polls are tightening.

OK, enough disclaimers. I see Obama winning 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. I believe that at approximately 10:30pm, enough states will have been called for Obama to give him over 270 electoral votes. I believe Obama will get 54% of the popular vote to McCain's 43%.

Below shows the time I believe each state will have its results called by the various network and cable news networks. An interesting point of this is that after 7pm and the first polls close, McCain will be ahead by a score of 16 electoral votes to 3. That will be the one and only time he is ahead.

So, of the ten battleground states, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virgina, I give eight to Obama and only Indiana and Montana to McCain. I believe Obama will hold Pennsylvania comfortably.

Obviously, no one should decide they do not need to vote as a result of a prediction. Predictions count on people voting who planned to vote, but at this time, I see a historic victory for Barack Obama.