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Clinton's Poll Result Pattern Bodes Ill for Hillary and Democrats Post Trump's Pygmalionization

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Rob Kall       (Page 1 of 1 pages)     Permalink    (# of views)   2 comments

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Hillary? Uh oh.
Hillary? Uh oh.
(Image by Karen Smith Murphy)
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The polls coming out now that Trump has begun his Pygmalionization show a race where Hillary is statistically tied with the Donald.
Trump is either winning or down by a statistically insignificant number of points.
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Here's the rub. Polls have VERY VERY consistently over estimated Hillary's performance in primaries.
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She has performed worse, a good 90% of the time, than the polls predicted she would.
There is every reason to expect that the same pattern will persist in the general. If the poll shows Hillary with X number of percentage points, you should probably deduct at least five and as much as 20% from whatever polling polling results you're looking at.
So, if the numbers are Trump 43 and Hillary 46, figure the outcome will more likely, based on the history of a lot of primary results, be Trump between 45 and 51 and Hillary between 43.7 and 37. That's with Hillary ahead. It gets uglier in the growing number of polls where Trump is beating Hillary.
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And it WILL get worse. Trump is spending a bloody fortune on image cosmeticians who specialize in cleaning up the images of dictators and tyrants. His negatives will drop. Hillary's will stay high and, possibly, with the help of Trump attack ads, go higher.
So just remember, whatever numbers you see Hillary getting, subtract between five percent and 20%. That will give you a much more realistic idea of how she'll do.

 

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Rob Kall is an award winning journalist, inventor, software architect, connector and visionary. His work and his writing have been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, ABC, the HuffingtonPost, Success, Discover and other media. He's given talks and workshops to Fortune 500 execs and national medical and psychological organizations, and pioneered first-of-their-kind conferences in Positive Psychology, Brain Science and Story. He hosts some of the world's smartest, most interesting and powerful people on his Bottom Up Radio Show, and founded and publishes one of the top Google- ranked progressive news and opinion sites, OpEdNews.com

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Rob Kall has spent his adult life as an awakener and empowerer-- first in the field of biofeedback, inventing products, developing software and a music recording label, MuPsych, within the company he founded in 1978-- Futurehealth, and founding, organizing and running 3 conferences: Winter Brain, on Neurofeedback and consciousness, Optimal Functioning and Positive Psychology (a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology, first presenting workshops on it in 1985) and Storycon Summit Meeting on the Art Science and Application of Story-- each the first of their kind.  Then, when he found the process of raising people's consciousness and empowering them to take more control of their lives  one person at a time was too slow, he founded Opednews.com-- which has been the top search result on Google for the terms liberal news and progressive opinion for several years. Rob began his Bottom-up Radio show, broadcast on WNJC 1360 AM to Metro Philly, also available on iTunes, covering the transition of our culture, business and world from predominantly Top-down (hierarchical, centralized, authoritarian, patriarchal, big)  to bottom-up (egalitarian, local, interdependent, grassroots, archetypal feminine and small.) Recent long-term projects include a book, Bottom-up-- The Connection Revolution, debillionairizing the planet and the Psychopathy Defense and Optimization Project. 

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