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Chipping Away At The Gap / Sanders Weekly Update

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Mary Wentworth       (Page 1 of 3 pages)     Permalink

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Late-Breaking News --Arizona Primary may be a Do-over! How Bernie Can Win -- Courtesy of Alan Grayson

"The first Democratic Presidential Primary runs from Feb. 1 to March 15. All 11 "Old South" states vote in that primary. We have two states left to go, (Missouri and North Carolina) but Hillary Clinton has won every one of the other nine, by an average of 43 points.

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Outside those states, 12 other states also have voted. Bernie Sanders has won nine of those races, HRC has won only two, and there has been one tie (Iowa). The average result in those 12 states has been a Sanders win by just under 20 points.

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The net effect of this (Hillary winning the "Old South" by 43 points, Bernie winning everywhere else by 20 points) is a Clinton lead among pledged delegates of 223 (specifically, 775 to 552).

Primary 2.0. runs from March 16 through June 7. It includes all of the Pacific states, and all of the "Mountain" states except Colorado and Nevada (which have already voted). Biggest: California (545 delegates), New York (291) and Pennsylvania (210). Democratic Presidential Primary 2.0 elects a total of 2033 pledged delegates. If Bernie wins those races (and delegates) by the same 60-40 margin that he has amassed in primaries and caucuses outside the "Old South" to date, then that will give him an advantage of 407 pledged delegates. That is more -- far more -- than the current Clinton margin of 223. Almost 700 pledged delegates are chosen on June 7 alone. It seems unlikely that either candidate will accumulate a margin of 700 pledged delegates before then. So this one may come down to the wire."

One difficulty in determining the results to date is that there is little agreement on how many delegates each candidate has.

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How Do Bernie's Results Compare With Alan's Figures?

The vote from Democrats Abroad has now been tallied and Bernie trounced Clinton -- 69% to 31%. 34,570 people participated in the voting that has given Bernie 9 delegates and Clinton 4. Good so far.

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Now retired and a writer, I am a feminist and political activist, a radical Democrat (have come to dislike the term "progressive"), and a blogger. Have done political tours of Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, West and East (way back when)Germany, (more...)
 

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